According to a Morgan Stanley survey, 48% of surveyed investors are concerned about the Nov. 3 midterms' potential impact on the stock market, while Nationwide found 56% feel more anxious because of the elections. Polls show Democrats favored to win the House, leading the generic ballot by about 9 percentage points as of Oct. 28, and narrowly favored in the Senate. Historically, median annualized volatility in midterm years has been nearly 16% versus 13% in other years, though Janus Henderson found annualized S&P 500 price returns of 8.73% under unified government and 9.24% under divided government. Schwab's analysis shows the S&P 500 averaged a 5.7% return in the three months after midterms since 1974, with positive returns in 11 of 13 years.
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midterm electionsDemocratic PartyS&P 500
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/28/2026 | 772.35 |
| Change that session | +0.35% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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