The article argues SpaceX's biggest risk is its AI infrastructure build-out, now its main growth driver, rather than its high valuation or upcoming share lock-ups. Musk has set targets of 3 gigawatts of compute by the end of 2026, 13 gigawatts by the end of 2027 and 20 gigawatts next year, with data centers to be built exclusively on Nvidia's next-generation platform. Using Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's figure of about $50 billion per gigawatt, the article estimates SpaceX could spend $500 billion on capex next year, far above the up to $220 billion Amazon plans this year. Because SpaceX's operating cash flow is minimal, it would likely need substantial debt and possibly equity, while added capacity could weaken returns on short-term rentals. The article also flags the five- to six-year lifespan of GPUs and the planned Terafab foundry as added pressure on cash flow and margins.
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