Bitcoin held its 100-day moving average into the monthly close as markets awaited the US midterm elections, jobs data and earnings from Apple and Palantir; BTC/USD fell 7.3% in October, its weakest October since 2014. Kalshi put the probability of Democrats winning control of the House at 93.6%, and President Donald Trump said he would use his veto power if Democrats took control of Congress. October nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 65,000, after September's gain of 29,000 fell short of the 84,000 forecast; CME's FedWatch Tool showed odds of a 0.25 percentage point Fed rate hike at the December meeting between 67% and 75% over the past month. Bitcoin fell in Q4 of each of the past three US midterm years (17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018 and 14.8% in 2022), and Benjamin Cowen said those Q4 declines typically offer opportunities to buy for investors who sold long ago. BTC/USD held above last week's low near $76,300, close to the 100-day SMA of $76,548 and the 100-week EMA of $77,759, while Rekt Capital compared the chart with the 2023 recovery and watched for a possible brief move below right-shoulder support.
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bitcoincryptomidterm electionsinterest ratesFed
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Related tickers and likely impact
BTC/USDT
• NeutralBitcoin
Relevance: low
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 11/01/2026 | 78,354.00 |
| Change that session | +1.00% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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