The article notes that although the strict recession definition (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) has not been met this year, investors often turn to defensive sectors such as utilities. Using the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) as a benchmark across four recessions since its launch, it finds utilities fell less than the broader market but were not safe: during the tech bubble bust (2000–02), the ETF slid 34.3% versus 42.4% for the S&P 500. During the global financial crisis (2007–09), it lost 42.5% versus nearly 56% for the S&P 500. In 2020, the ETF gained just 0.6% while the S&P 500 rose 18.4%; in 2022, the ETF gained 1.4% as the S&P 500 fell 18.2%. The author concludes the most reasonable expectation for utilities in a severe downturn is to perform 'less bad'.
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 755.71 |
| Change that session | -1.77% |
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 690.49 |
| Change that session | -3.47% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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