After years of record gains, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have each fallen about 2% from their all-time highs, while the Nasdaq Composite has dropped close to 6%. A weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors found nearly 46% of investors expect stock prices to fall over the next 6 months, 37% are bullish, and 17% expect little change. The article notes the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio surpassed 40 in May this year and has stayed there since, only the second time in history it has remained this high for months; it first passed 40 in early 1999, and the bear market began in March 2000. The article stresses the metric cannot predict when the next bear market will start or how severe it will be, but it shows stocks are richly valued. It argues that many successful investors have held quality stocks for the long term, citing Microsoft's 60% drop during the dot-com bear market.
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S&P 500valuationDow Jonesbear market
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SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 759.85 |
| Change that session | -0.54% |
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