Vistra trades at $120.24 after falling 13.86% in the latest session to a 52-week low of $117.28, and is down 25.13% this year. CEO Jim Burke said ERCOT wholesale prices near $30 per MWh are too low to support new plants, and CFO Kris Moldovan said 2027 adjusted EBITDA is trending toward the lower end of the $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion range. Second-quarter revenue of $4.02 billion missed consensus by 27.24%, partly due to a $472 million unrealized hedge loss. Hyperscaler deals still support the story: Meta signed 20-year PPAs for more than 2,600 MW at Vistra’s PJM nuclear sites, and AWS contracted up to 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak. Against a consensus target of $204.32 implying about 69.9% upside, BNP Paribas Exane’s Street-high target of $255.00 implies roughly 112% upside, while skeptics note hedge coverage falls to about 72% in 2028.
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