Vistra (VST) closed at $140 on October 23, down 16.9% over three months and 31% below its $203.66 high, even after the Energy Department's October 5 conditional commitment of up to $4.2 billion in loans for its nuclear fleet. The loans would fund uprates and modernization at Beaver Valley, Davis-Besse and Perry, preserving nearly 4 GW of existing output and adding 433 MW of new capacity, subject to technical, legal, environmental and financial conditions. Vistra has 20-year PPAs with Meta for 2,609 MW, including the 433 MW of planned uprates, and a roughly $4 billion Cogentrix deal adds 10 modern plants with about 5,500 MW, expected to close in mid-to-late 2026. Q2 revenue fell 5.5% to $4.02 billion, well below the $5.57 billion consensus, though adjusted EBITDA rose more than 30%; management said power prices remain too low for new-build projects to earn adequate returns, and 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8–7.6 billion was held. Retail president Scott Hudson sold more than $10 million of shares, and the author notes Vistra trades at 13.8x forward earnings versus 20.5x for Constellation, arguing the discount looks too wide if guidance holds, though he wants the loan finalized
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META
• NeutralMeta Platforms
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Communication Services |
| Industry | Interactive Media & Services |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 642.62 |
| Change that session | -0.96% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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