The author argues the Anthropic IPO, which could value the Claude developer at up to $2 trillion and possibly surpass SpaceX's $1.77 trillion debut on June 12, is likely to disappoint retail investors. Citing a Truist dataset of 30 tech-focused IPOs since May 2012, the article notes that only 43% finished higher one year after debut, with an average year-one peak-to-trough drop of 55%. Based on about $19.7 billion of trailing 12-month sales, a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation would mean a price-to-sales ratio of 76 to 102, well above the level of 30 the article cites as a bubble marker. The author also argues that AI adoption is still early, noting that businesses took years after the dot-com bubble to optimize internet-based solutions.
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| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.1T |
| Close on 10/29/2026 | 213.72 |
| Change that session | -0.77% |
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