If the tech sell-off keeps gaining steam, investors could face sharp losses given how heavily they have piled into tech stocks, according to TS Lombard strategist Dario Perkins in his paper "Wargaming the AI Crash." He models a decline of at least 30% in US stocks, wiping out around $20 trillion in market cap, along with $125–200 billion in losses across debt and private credit markets and a wave of tech-related defaults. The weakest AI players, including neoclouds, Oracle, standalone model developers and construction/equipment suppliers, would face acute distress, while hyperscalers would see serious revenue downgrades and banks would not be immune. Perkins says a cyclical downturn is inevitable, with capital spending plunging and construction job losses, but the recession would be at the milder end of historical norms given the Fed's room to cut rates. The backdrop includes CoreWeave's bonds being sold off and its stock falling 35% in October, and Meta posting negative free cash flow for the first time since 2012 while issuing new stock to fund its AI build-out.
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Related tickers and likely impact
NVDA
▼ Likely negativeNvidia
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.1T |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 212.21 |
| Change that session | -4.40% |
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 704.47 |
| Change that session | -2.86% |
META
▼ Likely negativeMeta Platforms
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Communication Services |
| Industry | Interactive Media & Services |
| Market cap | $1.7T |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 648.85 |
| Change that session | -6.98% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 763.96 |
| Change that session | -1.18% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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