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Another Rate Hike Is Expected Before the End of 2026. Here's Why It Might Have a Much Bigger Impact on the Markets This Time

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September for the first time since 2023 without rattling the markets. CME FedWatch data put the probability of another hike at the December 9 meeting at 90%, versus 17% for the October meeting, suggesting markets expect an increase before year-end. Inflation is rising, with the annualized CPI climbing to 3.7% in September from 3.4% the previous month, driven mainly by the Iran war, which pushed fuel oil and gasoline up 74% and 34% year over year. The article warns that another hike could revive fears of a repeat of 2022, when the S&P 500 fell more than 19%, and says a balanced mix of stocks across market areas could help manage this uncertainty.

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