China's GDP grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating a 4.4% forecast and rebounding from three-year lows, while the first nine months expanded 4.6%. Booming exports, which rose by more than a third, are the main driver, while September retail sales rose just 1.1%, fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% over January to September, and the property downturn continues to weigh. Analysts expect China to meet its 4.5% to 5.0% 2026 growth target without additional stimulus, but Societe Generale economist Michelle Lam warned that without a decisive policy shift toward household incomes and consumption, the economy may remain stuck in low inflation and sub-par growth.
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Related news
- China GDP beats forecasts as export boom offsets weak demand
- China growth picks up as exports surge , consumers remain cautious
China's economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating the 4.4% forecast and rebounding from three-year lows, as a surge in exports offset weak consumer spending and a prolonged property downturn. GDP grew 4.6% in the first nine months, and analysts expect Beijing to meet its 4.5% to 5.0% growth target for 2026 without extra stimulus. Growth remains uneven: retail sales rose just 1.1% against 5.5% industrial output growth, fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January–September, and unemployment eased to 5.2% in September. Exports rose more than a third and China may surpass last year's US$1.2 trillion trade surplus, but economists warn of dependence on overseas demand and weak domestic consumption. The yuan hit its strongest level since July 2022 after the data.
- China growth picks up as exports surge , consumers remain cautious
China's economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating the 4.4% forecast and rebounding from three-year lows, as a surge in exports offset weak consumer spending and a prolonged property slump. GDP rose 4.6% in the first nine months, and analysts expect Beijing to meet its 4.5%–5.0% growth target for 2026 without additional stimulus. The recovery remains uneven: retail sales rose 1.1% in September, their fastest pace in six months but from a low base, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January–September. Exports rose more than a third and the trade surplus is on track to surpass last year's US$1.2 trillion, but ANZ and Societe Generale warned of trade tensions and reliance on overseas demand. The yuan strengthened to its highest level since July 2022 after the data.
- China GDP beats forecasts as export boom offsets weak demand
China's GDP grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating economists' forecast of 4.4% and rebounding from three-year lows, with growth of 4.6% in the first nine months. Exports rose by more than a third, offsetting weak retail sales, which grew 1.1% in September, and a property downturn, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January-September. Analysts expect China to meet its 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5.0% without additional stimulus, and the country is on track to surpass last year's US$1.2 trillion trade surplus. Economists warn that reliance on exports and weak domestic demand leave the economy exposed, and the yuan strengthened to its highest level since July 2022 after the data.
- China growth picks up as exports surge , consumers remain cautious
China's economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating the 4.4% forecast and rebounding from three-year lows, as a surge in exports offset weak consumer spending and a prolonged property slump. Growth for the first nine months was 4.6%, and analysts expect China to meet its 2026 target of 4.5% to 5.0% without additional stimulus. Industrial output rose 5.5% in September and retail sales 1.1%, their fastest in six months but from a low base, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January–September and unemployment eased to 5.2%. Exports rose by more than a third and the trade surplus is on track to top last year's US$1.2 trillion, but economists warn of reliance on overseas demand and trade-related risks. The yuan strengthened to its highest level since July 2022.
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