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Original headline: Chipotle expects modestly higher sales this year as drive-thru ‘Chipotlanes’ come to more stores
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- Why Chipotle Stock Popped Today
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares rose 8.88% after CEO Scott Boatwright said the plan to reinvigorate growth was working. Third-quarter revenue rose 9.6% year over year to $3.3 billion, with 84 company-owned openings and five international partner-operated locations bringing the total to more than 4,200 restaurants as of Sept. 30. Comparable restaurant sales grew 2.1%, and digital sales rose to 38.8% of food and beverage revenue from 36.7% a year earlier. Restaurant-level operating margin fell to 23.3% from 24.5% despite menu price increases to offset higher beef, freight and labor costs, while adjusted net income was $344.6 million, or $0.27 per share. For 2027, Chipotle plans 340 to 360 openings in the U.S. and Canada and 15 to 25 in other international markets.
- Chipotle Mexican Grill is about to report earnings. Here's what to expect
Chipotle Mexican Grill reports quarterly earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Based on LSEG analysts, the company is expected to post earnings of 29 cents per share and revenue of $3.29 billion, while StreetAccount estimates same-store sales growth of 1.5%. The article says Chipotle appears to have fully rebounded from a weak 2025, when traffic and same-store sales fell. Its shares have fallen nearly 22% this year, bringing market cap to about $36 billion, and Semafor reported the company hired advisors to defend against activist investors or an unwanted takeover.
- Carvana and Chipotle Soar After Earnings While Ford and ServiceNow Sink
Carvana sold a record number of cars and Chipotle's traffic held up, sending both stocks higher after hours. Ford's EV losses and a small ServiceNow miss weighed on those two stocks.
- Traders are betting big against this restaurant giant into earnings
Options volume in Chipotle surged Tuesday to more than eight times its monthly average, skewed heavily toward puts: 240,000 puts traded versus under 17,000 calls. Of the $8 million in put premiums, at least $2 million came from a trader buying back 56,000 25-strike puts expiring in November while selling the same number of 22.5-strike puts expiring mid-December, which the article says may signal weakening confidence. A separate trader bought 7,500 28-strike puts expiring Nov. 20 for $1.1 million, a bet that the stock must fall another 5% over the next 3.5 weeks. Jason DeLorenzo of Volland said customers generally look bearish, and noted the implied move before earnings is the lowest since July 2025, when the stock got crushed.
- Here's What History Says Q4 Will Bring for Chipotle (CMG) Stock
Chipotle shares have fallen 18% in 2026 as of Oct. 14 and sit 56% below their June 2024 record, and the article notes that fourth-quarter stock performance this decade has been mixed, with declines in 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2025 but gains of 12% in 2020 and 25% in 2023. Pressures include a rare 1.7% decline in same-store sales in 2025, a recovery to 0.5% in Q1 and 2.2% in Q2 this year, and a unit-level operating margin of 25.2%, down 220 basis points amid labor and food inflation. Valuation has become more attractive, with a P/E ratio of 28.2 near a 10-year low, and the company is still expanding with 4,186 company-owned stores and 350 to 370 net new openings planned this year. However, consensus expects EPS to grow just 8.6% a year from 2025 to 2028, versus 21.2% a year over the previous three years, and the article says investors should temper their expectations.
- Chipotle faces near-term sales pressures but UBS sees stronger growth in 2027
UBS expects Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) to report broadly in-line third-quarter sales on October 28, with same-store sales growth of 1.5% against a 1.3% consensus. However, Second Measure data suggests trading weakened at the start of the fourth quarter, and UBS forecasts 1.4% same-store sales growth for 2026, below the 1.8% consensus. Third-quarter restaurant-level margin is forecast at 23.6%, down 90 basis points year on year and below the 23.8% consensus. UBS expects 2027 same-store sales growth of 2.6% and a 24.0% margin, though the margin remains below the 24.4% consensus, supported by menu and marketing initiatives.
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