Dollar Tree shares fell 6% to $123.50 (up 0.4% YTD) and Dollar General fell 6% to $131.27 (up 0.5% YTD), far more than the 2% drop in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF to $87.58. Neither company has issued a press release since late September, and both raised full-year guidance at their latest reports. The article points to weaker consumer sentiment, with the University of Michigan index falling to 48.1 in September from 51.7 in August, and notes that Dollar Tree's Q2 FY2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $2.70 included $1.31 per share from tariff refunds. Dollar Tree's adjusted full-year EPS outlook is $7.70 to $8.05, while its Q3 guidance of $0.80 to $0.95 absorbs an approximately $0.50 hit from reinvesting tariff refunds. The key test for the group is whether shoppers keep trading down to discount chains during the holiday season.
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