A Reuters poll conducted October 16–20 found all 100 respondents expect the Fed to raise rates in December, a sharp reversal from last month, when fewer than half expected a hike. For the October 27–28 meeting, 94 of 100 economists expect rates to stay at 3.75%–4.00%, after the Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points in September. Despite a strong economy and hotter-than-expected inflation, Fed officials have signaled a slower pace of hikes, while Chair Kevin Warsh has remained silent. Nearly 60% of economists see the policy rate peaking at 4.00%–4.25%, and 38 of 92 respondents forecast at least two more hikes, up from about one-fifth in September. Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for nearly six years, and higher energy costs from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and new tariffs add to price pressures, with oil holding above US$100.
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Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: high
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 101.62 |
| Change that session | -0.07% |
EUR/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 1.12168 |
| Change that session | -0.14% |
PAXG/USDT
▼ Likely negativePAX Gold
Relevance: medium
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Real-world assets |
| Market cap | $1.8B |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 4,036.10 |
| Change that session | -2.23% |
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 704.59 |
| Change that session | -2.84% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 764.02 |
| Change that session | -1.17% |
XAUT/USDT
▼ Likely negativeTether Gold
Relevance: medium
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Real-world assets |
| Market cap | $3.4B |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 4,030.01 |
| Change that session | -2.29% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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