Ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, President Donald Trump has argued the U.S. economy is surging, but voters point to inflation, with the Iran war pushing up gasoline prices, grocery bills staying high and interest rates making homes and cars harder to afford. The latest CPI report before Election Day showed inflation at 3.7% over the past 12 months; CPI had been rising at about 3% in January 2025, slowed until April 2025, then climbed again after sweeping tariffs and the Iran war added pressure. Unemployment is 4.2%, but employers have added an average of almost 39,000 jobs a month in Trump's second term, versus more than 121,000 a month in the year before he returned to the White House. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, its highest since 2002, while the S&P 500 is up about 12% this year. According to Federal Reserve data, the wealth of the top 0.1% of households has risen by $5.5 trillion in 18 months, compared with a $380 billion gain for the bottom 50%.
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Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 101.70 |
| Change that session | -0.28% |
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 769.01 |
| Change that session | +0.33% |
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The AP fact check finds that although President Trump says the economy is booming ahead of the midterm elections, voters remain concerned about inflation, gasoline prices tied to the Iran war, and high borrowing costs. CPI inflation stood at 3.7% over the past 12 months, after slowing until April 2025 and then climbing again following new tariffs. GDP has grown a little over 2% annually and unemployment is 4.2%, but job gains average almost 39,000 per month, versus 121,000 in the year before Trump returned to the White House. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, its highest since 2002, while the S&P 500 is up about 12% this year. Wealth of the top 0.1% of households rose $5.5 trillion in 18 months, while the bottom 50% gained only $380 billion.
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President Donald Trump is trying to persuade voters before the midterm elections on Nov. 3 that the U.S. economy is soaring, but many voters say inflation remains a problem because the Iran war has pushed up gasoline prices, groceries are still expensive, and high interest rates make it harder to buy a home or car. Inflation was 3.7% over the past 12 months, after it slowed until April 2025 and then climbed again following sweeping tariffs and the Iran war. GDP has grown a bit over 2% a year and unemployment is 4.2%, but job growth has slowed to about 39,000 jobs a month in Trump's second term, compared with more than 121,000 a month in the year before he returned to the White House. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, its highest since 2002, while the S&P 500 is up about 12% this year. The top 0.1% of households gained $5.5 trillion in wealth in 18 months, while the bottom 50% gained $380 billion.
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- Fact check : When it comes to Trump economy , these numbers matter
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