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Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Ahead of Midterms. Here's What That Means for the Market.

The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75%-4%, a result markets had widely expected with prediction markets giving over 90% odds of a hold, so the S&P 500 rose less than 0.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 1%. The statement changed only four phrases from last month: it dropped the line that today's policy action would support a timelier return to the 2 percent goal, adopted more cautious wording about gathering more information, and described economic activity as expanding at a “strong” rather than “solid” pace. Two dissenters, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, wanted a quarter-percentage-point hike. Of 100 economists polled by Reuters, 94 correctly expected a hold this month, but all 100 anticipated a hike at the December 9 meeting, and prediction markets also strongly favor a December increase.

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