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- Trump emerges as prime suspect in economic mystery stumping experts : economist
Economist Justin Wolfers argues that Americans' gloom despite solid economic statistics stems mainly from a record collapse in public confidence in how the Trump administration handles the economy. The University of Michigan's sentiment index is around 52, nearly the level of May 1980, when unemployment was near 8% and inflation near 14%. His model estimates sentiment should be about 82, a 30-point gap. The share rating economic policy as poor minus those rating it good widened from 14 points in late 2024 to 66 in May 2026, above the previous high of 52 during the 2011 debt ceiling standoff. Backtested on data through October 2024, the model with this verdict predicted a drop of roughly 20 points, close to the actual 17-point fall, while prices and jobs alone forecast only about 2 points.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent invokes Lincoln's 1863 act to back Trump's law
- Fact check : When it comes to Trump economy , these numbers matter
AP's fact check finds the U.S. economy under Trump is neither as strong as he claims nor as weak as consumer sentiment surveys suggest. Inflation was 3.7% over the 12 months to the last CPI report before Election Day, after slowing until April 2025 and then rising again following new tariffs and the Iran war. GDP has grown a little over 2% a year and unemployment is 4.2%, but job gains average nearly 39,000 a month, versus more than 121,000 in the year before Trump returned. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, its highest since 2002. The S&P 500 is up about 12% this year, while the top 0.1% of households gained $5.5 trillion in wealth in 18 months versus $380 billion for the bottom 50%.
- Fact check : When it comes to Trump economy , these numbers matter
- Fact check : When it comes to Trump economy , these numbers matter
Ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, an AP fact check reviews key economic figures: inflation was 3.7% over the past 12 months after slowing until April 2025 and then rising again amid tariffs and the Iran war. GDP has grown a bit more than 2% annually under Trump, short of the pace under Biden, though the U.S. is not in recession. The unemployment rate is 4.2%, but job growth averages almost 39,000 a month, down from more than 121,000 in the year before Trump returned to the White House. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, its highest since 2002. While the S&P 500 is up about 12% this year, the wealth of the top 0.1% of households rose by $5.5 trillion in 18 months, compared with a $380 billion gain for the bottom 50%.
- Fact check : When it comes to Trump economy , these numbers matter
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Musk said SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to study a merger, which would be worth about $3.5 trillion combined and would be the largest corporate deal in history. SpaceX, valued at about $2 trillion after a record listing this year, absorbed Musk's AI startup xAI in February, while Tesla is valued at about $1.5 trillion. Musk holds about 82 percent of SpaceX's voting power but only about 20 percent at Tesla. Dan Ives puts the odds of a deal at 90 percent by early 2027, though Musk called the requirement of a majority of all Tesla shares 'quite a high hurdle'. Loyal retail investors hold an estimated 25 to 27 percent of Tesla shares, and legal obstacles appear slight because both companies moved their incorporation to Texas from Delaware.
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Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, calls Thursday’s sell-off in the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) a momentum unwind “for the record books.” He says the market spent the first half of 2026 driven by a beta and momentum trade led by semiconductors, but in the third quarter, as rates rose, money shifted into quality stocks. He does not think the sell-off is justified by fundamentals, arguing that institutional portfolio managers swapping out of factor positions can drag down whole baskets of stocks. In semiconductors, spot rental rates for Nvidia Blackwell chips are higher than a month ago, showing tightening compute supply, even as financing costs rise and investors worry about neocloud business models and the rising cost of insuring their bonds.
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