Despite Trump's claim that there is no inflation and tariffs don't cause it, a New York Fed report by three economists finds tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation through February 2026. Each percentage point increase in average tariffs translated into about a quarter-percentage-point rise in consumer prices after one year, with a 10% across-the-board tariff yielding a 2.6% increase in consumer goods prices. The article also points to broader inflation driven by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with fuel oil up 74.0% and overall CPI up 3.7% over the past year. It warns that persistent inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten further, raising borrowing costs and potentially sending the AI-driven stock market lower.
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 766.48 |
| Change that session | +0.42% |
DXY
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 101.98 |
| Change that session | +0.20% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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