The S&P 500 closed at 7,757.17 on Oct. 21, about 0.8% below its record close of 7,818.93 on Oct. 6, and is up roughly 13% in 2026 even after the Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time in over three years. The author checked every year since 1928 when the index was within 1% of a record on Oct. 21: all 16 such years set at least one new record close before year-end, though some, such as 1993, did not until late December (Dec. 27). A new record does not guarantee a strong finish, however: from Oct. 21 to year-end the index rose in 14 of the 16 years, and the median year gained around 4%. The author notes the sample is small and points to current risks, including the 10-year Treasury yield topping 5.3% in early October, its highest level since 2002, and a rally concentrated in stocks linked to artificial intelligence (AI).
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SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 763.96 |
| Change that session | -1.18% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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