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- ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD | Godongwana expected to trim GDP forecast
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to trim his 2026 growth forecast, which was 1.6% in the February budget, in his medium-term budget policy statement to parliament on Wednesday. The US war against Iran has hurt manufacturing and mining and pushed inflation sharply higher, and the South African Reserve Bank and the IMF have already cut their forecasts significantly. Spending for the first five months of 2026/27 reached 42% of the budget versus 41% a year earlier, while revenue of R812bn trailed the R868bn implied by the main budget, according to Investec economist Annabel Bishop. This week, Sacci releases its September business confidence index on Monday, and Stats SA publishes September consumer inflation on Wednesday, with Absa economists expecting a 0.2 percentage point rise to 4.6% on fuel prices.
- South Africa trims weekly bond auctions in effort to show fiscal discipline
South Africa's government said it will cut the fixed-rate bonds it sells each week by 600 million rand to 1.950 billion rand ($119.08 million) from November 3, and reduce inflation-linked bond offerings by 100 million rand to 900 million rand from October 30. It also launched a bond buyback programme to repurchase some debt before maturity, which will smooth large repayments ahead, as part of efforts to show fiscal discipline and bring down debt, announced alongside a mid-year budget review. The benchmark 2035 government bond rallied after the announcement, with its yield falling 16 basis points to 8.575%, while the rand was broadly steady. The review projects debt repayments will more than double to 352.6 billion rand in fiscal 2029/30 from 167.6 billion rand this year, lifting the gross borrowing requirement to 586.2 billion rand, even as the budget deficit is projected to narrow.
- South African rand gains slightly as traders await budget speech , inflation data
The South African rand edged up roughly 0.2% in early Monday trade to 16.4475, as investors looked ahead to a busy week of economic data. The focus is on Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's medium-term budget policy statement on Wednesday and September inflation figures. Nedbank expects headline inflation to rise to 4.8% in September from 4.4% in August, and retail sales growth to slow to 2.5% in August from 3.4% in July, with higher transport costs from fuel prices and rand depreciation as the main pressure. The 2035 benchmark government bond was little changed, with its yield rising half a basis point to 8.7%.
- Rand edges up as next week medium-term budget draws focus
The South African Rand edged up in early trade on Thursday to 16.5575 per dollar, about 0.3% firmer than its previous close, as the dollar slipped from an 18-month peak. The dollar index had hit an 18-month high after stronger-than-expected US inflation data, but gave up most of those gains. Investors are awaiting Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's medium-term budget policy statement next week, with expectations of an improving budget balance and a more favourable ratings outlook. ETM Analytics said the Rand is looking to US markets for direction while the budget statement will keep traders in limbo. South Africa's benchmark 2035 government bond yield fell 6.5 basis points to 8.69%.
- National Assembly to discuss socio-economic development and state budget today
- Türkiye targets 4 . 2 % growth in 2027 as government unveils budget proposal
Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said Türkiye expects economic growth to rise to 4.2% in 2027 from a projected 3.3% this year, supported by a better global outlook and a recovery in external demand. The 2027 budget proposal projects a shortfall of $78.1 billion, equal to 3.5% of GDP, or 2.8% excluding earthquake-related spending. Annual inflation, which fell below 30% in September, is forecast to reach 28.4% by the end of this year and decline to 21% by the end of 2027. The government also expects employment to rise by 657,000 next year and unemployment to fall to 8%.
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