A tech sell-off led by AI chip stocks, the war in Iran, higher inflation and rates, and midterm uncertainty have weighed on stocks heading into November. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted positive 12-month returns every time investors bought at the end of October in a midterm year, with an average gain of 16.6%. Over the shorter October-to-year-end window, returns were positive in 13 of 19 midterm years. The author attributes this to markets rebounding once election uncertainty clears and to a preference for divided government, but warns the pattern may fail if an AI bust or new data center curbs emerge. Citing Anthropic's S-1 and semiconductor firms that report being sold out, the author concludes that a long-term plan with regular contributions matters more than short-term moves.
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midterm electionsS&P 500inflationinterest rates
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 755.71 |
| Change that session | -1.77% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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