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Original headline: 24 - Hour Economy : Have we confused the market with the economy ?
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- A Nobel Prize for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford on 12 October 'for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation'. The ECB blog post explains how stabilisation policy aims to dampen booms and recessions, an idea that grew out of Keynes's demand-side theory after the Great Depression. Hall's work built a theory of individual consumption based on the permanent income hypothesis, which avoided the need for data on consumers' unobservable expectations of lifetime income.
- The economic week in review
Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in September as employment fell and participation eased, although the trend rate held at 4.6%. The RBA's September Board Minutes were decisively hawkish, focusing on inflation risks, while the Governor's post-meeting remarks were more dovish. CBA still expects the cash rate to stay on hold but sees a November rate hike as a clear risk. Wage growth held at 0.8% per quarter and 3.3% per year, while business confidence fell for a third consecutive month. Attention next week will be on Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's speech and the Q3 CPI release on 28 October.
- Economics Week Ahead - ActionForex
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- How Will the Stock Market Perform in the Final Months of the Year?
According to experts, the market in the final months of the year depends heavily on the cost of capital, especially interest rates, even though Q3 2026 GDP grew 9.95% and the VN-Index still corrected. Liquidity is weak and foreign investors net sold over 98,300 billion dong in the first nine months, and AZFin's Đặng Trần Phục forecasts that the VN-Index will likely move sideways in Q4. VNDIRECT's Đinh Quang Hinh says the earnings yield of stocks outside the Vingroup group is about 9.6% a year, only about 1.5 percentage points above the 1-year interbank rate. Yuanta Việt Nam's Nguyễn Thế Minh says a 1-percentage-point cut in the 1-year rate could lift the P/E of non-Vingroup stocks by about 6%, while 2027 earnings may be nearly flat. On the positive side, Chứng khoán Tiên Phong (TPS) points to about 573,474 billion dong in public investment still to be disbursed and passive inflows that could exceed 2.2 billion USD after the market upgrade.
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OpenAI is reportedly seeking to raise $20 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation. The move comes as Meta and Microsoft have just raised funds and an Anthropic IPO looms.
- Rocket Lab Reports Nov. 9. Here's What I'd Need to See Before Buying the Stock.
Rocket Lab will report third-quarter results after the close on Monday, with management forecasting revenue of $250 million to $265 million, up 61% to 71% year over year. Shares trade near $58, about 61% below their record close in late May, after the company said its Neutron rocket will not make its first flight until 2027. The author says the key signals are progress on replacing the forward dome of the first-stage propellant tank and whether first-quarter 2027 testing stays on schedule, since Neutron is tied to profitability. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed from $26.3 million in the third quarter of 2025 to $8.8 million in the second quarter, but third-quarter guidance calls for a loss of $17 million to $23 million, and adjusted gross margin is expected at 35% to 37%, down from 41.5%. The author says he would consider a small position if the report shows Neutron on track and a loss near the better end of guidance, and would hold off if either slips.
- $10,000 Invested in Robinhood at Its IPO Would Be Worth About $27,160 Today
Investing $10,000 in Robinhood stock at its IPO closing price would now be worth roughly $27,160, though the shares opened near $38 and closed the first session at $34.82. The stock hit an all-time high of $152.46 in October 2025 and is now down roughly 38% from that peak as the crypto market pulled back. Robinhood trades at about 37 times this year's expected earnings and 16 times expected sales. In the third quarter, sales rose about 12% year over year to $1.42 billion, but adjusted EPS fell 3% to $0.60 as operating expenses climbed 16%, and the full-year operating expense target was set at $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion, with the top end cut by $25 million. The author says prediction markets and new products are growth drivers, and that stronger sales, earnings, and a crypto valuation rebound could lift the valuation further.
- Golden Dome Is a $185 Billion Program, but Anduril Is Private. Here Are the 3 Public Companies Building It.
The Golden Dome missile defense program is projected to cost around $185 billion, and the Congressional Budget Office estimates maintenance and sustainment could reach $1.2 trillion over 20 years. Because Anduril is privately held, the article highlights Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman as public defense companies positioned to benefit. Lockheed makes PAC-3 MSE and THAAD interceptors under 7-year contracts and is adding 2 million square feet of facilities, while RTX converted agreements worth $70 billion into undefinitized contract actions. Northrop provides tracking satellites and solid rocket motors and received a $1.6 billion contract from Lockheed in the third quarter. The companies say their agreements include recovery remedies and downside protections if funding changes, and the article argues the program offers a multi-decade revenue stream.
- Jamie Dimon warns US savers about Washington’s ‘heroin’ effect — it could crush you. Here’s how his bank protects itself
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago, warned that government spending is inflationary: it boosts corporate profits and makes people feel good, but that feeling can prove painful later. Treasury Department data cited show the U.S. spent $7.40 trillion in fiscal 2026 while collecting $5.40 trillion, a $1.99 trillion deficit, up $217 billion from fiscal 2025. Dimon said the problem is not one piece of legislation but years of overspending, and that JPMorgan prepares for scenarios such as a 40% stock price drop. The article notes U.S. consumer prices have risen 29.8% since the start of 2020, and that $100 in 2026 has the purchasing power of $11.65 in 1970. It also covers gold, up 125% over five years, and real estate, where the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index rose 84% over ten years, presenting both as inflation hedges while noting high home prices and the work of managing tenants as drawbacks.
- European Commission reveals proceeds from €180 billion of frozen Russian assets
Of about 300 billion euros of Russian assets frozen by the EU and G7, roughly 180 billion sit at Euroclear, and the European Commission says it has received about 8 billion euros in proceeds from them since 2024, including 1.4 billion euros in August. It received only “a significant part” of the proceeds, suggesting Belgium taxes this income at rates that could reach 30%, according to Le Soir. The EC argues the interest is legally usable because the money “does not belong to Russia,” while a Belgian legal source told TASS this is equivalent to saying bank deposit interest does not belong to the account holder. In December 2025, Russia’s central bank sued Euroclear in the Moscow Arbitration Court for 18,200 billion rubles (225.5 billion USD), amid EU plans to use the assets to support Ukraine. On May 15, 2026, the court ruled in favor of the central bank and ordered Euroclear Bank to pay, and on May 20 the bank asked the court to enforce the ruling immediately.
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