Treasurys rallied as stocks slid, pushing the 10-year yield on track for its biggest one-day drop in over two years and back below 5% despite Brent crude near $112 a barrel. Traders pared bets on a Fed rate hike before its Oct. 28 meeting: odds of an October hike fell to about 5% from 15% on Wednesday, while December hike odds are around 75%. Breakevens still imply inflation averaging about 2.4% a year, unchanged from before the war, so the yield rise mostly reflects real yields. The average 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.32% from 7.40%, the first drop in two months, though Freddie Mac's survey predates the rally. Pending home sales hit a record low in September, with about 14.5% of contracts falling through.
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Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 101.70 |
| Change that session | 0.00% |
XAU/USD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: medium
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 4,141.17 |
| Change that session | +0.39% |
BTC/USDT
▲ Likely positiveBitcoin
Relevance: low
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 84,093.42 |
| Change that session | +1.28% |
EUR/USD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 1.12328 |
| Change that session | -0.04% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
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- Fed rate increases could lead to lower mortgage rates , Habib says
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