Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027 as war-related shipping disruptions, higher farming costs and El Niño-driven drought strain supplies. Food prices are already rising sharply in parts of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, with Indonesian rice at record highs, bread in Egypt up a quarter and Indian sugar at an all-time high after the weakest monsoon in over a decade. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, while wheat has risen more than 30% in 2026 and freight rates on some key routes have climbed about 50%. Record grain stocks that had cushioned prices are weakening, and importers returning to the market could spark a new wave of demand, while processors are renewing raw-material contracts at higher prices.
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XAU/USD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: low
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 4,125.21 |
| Change that session | -0.38% |
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Related news
- Global food prices face fresh surge as supply shocks pile up
Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions, higher farming costs and El Niño-driven drought tighten supplies. Food prices are already rising sharply in parts of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, with Indonesian rice at record highs. The share of the 150 countries analyzed by the World Bank where food prices outpaced headline inflation rose to 22 percent in the September quarter from 14 percent. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, and wheat has risen more than 30 percent in 2026. Freight rates have climbed about 50 percent on some routes, and processors are renewing three- to six-month raw-material contracts at higher prices, while experts warn of a new wave of demand as importers return to the market.
- Food inflation set to accelerate globally and persist into 2027
Global food prices are expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, driven by war-related shipping disruptions, higher farming costs and El Niño-linked drought. The share of countries where food prices outpaced headline inflation rose to 22% of the 150 analysed by the World Bank in the September quarter, from 14% the previous quarter, with record rice prices in Indonesia and an all-time high for sugar in India. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, while wheat has climbed more than 30% in 2026 and freight rates on some routes have risen about 50%. A likely wave of restocking by importers could add pressure as global grain buffers weaken. Food processors are renewing three- to six-month raw-material contracts at higher prices, and weaker currencies in some countries are adding to costs.
- Global food inflation is expected to intensify as supply shocks pile up
Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, and the World Bank found food prices rose faster than headline inflation in 22% of 150 countries in the September quarter, up from 14% previously. Wheat prices are up more than 30% in 2026, rice prices in key Asian exporters have risen 10% to 13%, and Indonesia's rice prices have hit record highs. The poorest consumers in low- and middle-income countries are hit hardest, raising the risk of social unrest and export bans, and freight rates on some key routes have risen about 50%.
- Global food inflation is expected to intensify as supply shocks pile up
Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino drought squeeze cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia have hit record highs, bread in Egypt has risen by a quarter, and sugar in India reached an all-time high. The World Bank found food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% previously. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest reading since November 2022. Rising prices heighten the risk of social unrest and could prompt key exporters to impose export bans.
- Global food inflation expected to intensify as supply shocks mount
FAO chief economist Maximo Torero warned that global food inflation is poised to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Niño-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia hit record highs, bread in Egypt rose by a quarter, and sugar in India reached a record after the weakest monsoon in more than a decade. The World Bank found that food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% in the previous quarter. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, and the world's poorest consumers are being hit hardest.
- Food inflation risks rise as war and El Niño strain supplies
FAO chief economist Máximo Torero warned food inflation could intensify late this year and persist into 2027 due to shipping disruptions, expensive farm inputs and El Niño. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from a year earlier, though still 15.1% below its March 2022 peak. In the U.S., grocery prices fell 0.1% in September while overall consumer prices rose 0.6% and reached an annual rate of 3.7%. FAO forecast a 2026 cereal harvest of 2.979 billion metric tons, 2.1% below the previous year's record. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center put the probability of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño lasting through January–March 2027 at greater than 83%.
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