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Original headline: How Much Anthropic Matters to SpaceX and Other Gems From SpaceX’s Filing
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- Anthropic Investors Beware: IPOs Significantly Underperform the Market in Year 1
Anthropic has filed to list on Nasdaq under the ticker “ANT” in an IPO that could raise as much as $100 billion, possibly in November, at a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. The article cites Edward Jones research showing that for companies that went public from 1980 to 2015, IPO stocks averaged an 18% first-day return, and tech stocks averaged 35.2%; however, tech stocks were down an average 3% after three months and 14% after six months. SpaceX (SPCX) listed on June 12, peaked above $225, fell to about $108 in late July, and now trades near $149; it posted $4.4 billion in net income in the third quarter but still has heavy capital expenditures and trades at 67 times trailing sales. A Truist Financial study of 30 major software and tech IPOs found every one experienced a significant drawdown in its first year. Anthropic's filing warns that advanced AI could pose “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity,” and the author suggests investors be cautious with newly listed stocks.
- The Anthropic IPO: Why Investors Are Better Off Avoiding It
Anthropic, the AI company behind the Claude chatbot, has filed for an IPO, and its stock could begin trading next month. It would follow SpaceX's June listing, which valued the rocket company at around $1.8 trillion. Anthropic's revenue grew from $1.2 billion in the first six months of 2025 to $16.3 billion over the first two quarters of this year, but its operating expenses, just under $17 billion, still exceed revenue, and competition is intensifying. The author argues the company is not worth even $1 trillion and that its IPO valuation could be around double that figure. SpaceX shares have fallen about 35% from their early-trading peak of more than $225, and the author warns Anthropic's stock could face a sharp sell-off.
- Why Anthropic's IPO contrasts the 'cult of Elon Musk' at SpaceX and Tesla
The SpaceX (SPCX) prospectus singles out Elon Musk as the key decision-maker, while Anthropic (ANTH.PVT), which could be the largest IPO ever, is run by a group of co-founders. Veteran dealmaker Jim Neeson of the Connor Group argues that this structure can avoid dependence on one person, though the founding group will hold majority control through new Class F stock and collectively own 50.1%. Anthropic's first-half 2026 revenue rose to $16.3 billion from $1.1 billion a year earlier, but the filing shows an $80.7 billion net loss driven by heavy AI spending. On an adjusted basis, it posted $1.62 billion in operating income over the first six months of 2026, versus a $1.85 billion loss a year earlier. Investment bankers reportedly target a listing valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, with a debut possible before the end of November on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.
- Elon Musk's SpaceX clearly has a lot riding on the success of Anthropic, probably much to the surprise of investors
Anthropic's prospectus shows its relationship with SpaceX (SPCX) is larger than the original agreement described in SpaceX's S-1, with maximum compute spending of $120.5 billion through 2029. Aggregate monthly fees of about $3.1 billion, expected in December once all capacity is delivered, are almost 2.5 times the $1.25 billion a month for roughly 325,000 Nvidia GPUs disclosed earlier. EvercoreISI analyst Kutgun Maral estimates that at full run rate, Anthropic could account for 25% to 28% of SpaceX's first-quarter 2027 revenue guidance, and says this is not a near-term revenue risk but raises questions about dependence on a single customer. Anthropic's first-half 2026 revenue rose to $16.3 billion from $1.1 billion, while it posted an $80.7 billion net loss. It could list before the end of November, with a reported valuation of $1.5 to $2 trillion.
- Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones warns AI and IPOs could hit stocks hard in 2027. Protect your nest egg now
Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC on Oct. 13 that 2027 will be very challenging for the stock market, as AI fundraising and big IPOs add shares that compete for investors' money. He noted that buybacks and acquisitions have long removed shares, such as Apple's repurchase of 402 million shares for $89.3 billion in fiscal 2025, but this balance could shift as SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI prepare offerings. He said he will be short the whole year, betting on falling prices, and compared the current market to 1999. The article stresses that his warning concerns what could follow, not an immediate collapse, and that he still sees room for a strong finish to 2026.
- Jamie Dimon finally retiring? He isn't showing it with his work on the SpaceX and Anthropic IPOs
Anthropic has chosen JPMorgan to lead US sales of shares to individual investors, according to Bloomberg, with CEO Jamie Dimon expected to take part in efforts to pitch the Anthropic story to average investors. JPMorgan had earlier compiled retail orders for the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO in June, and Dimon played a prominent role in the lead-up, holding a wide-ranging conversation with Elon Musk about SpaceX, Starlink and AI. Dimon, the longest-serving big bank CEO with more than 20 years in the job, has drawn retirement speculation for years. In June, the bank named Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh co-presidents, and Marianne Lake announced her retirement. Dimon said the timing of succession is completely up to the board.
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