SpaceX (SPCX) went public on June 12 at $135 per share, reached a record close of $211.39 on June 16, and now trades at $145. Revenue rose 33% to $18.67 billion in 2025, and Elon Musk has said it could reach $1 trillion by 2030. At its peak, the $2.64 trillion market cap was 58 times the $45.3 billion in revenue analysts expected for 2026. Starlink's $2.84 billion operating profit in the first half of 2026 was wiped out by operating losses of $1.20 billion in space and $3.73 billion in AI, while rising rates, Treasury yields and lockup expirations from August weighed on the shares. The author would not buy if the stock dips slightly below its IPO price, to avoid panic selling, but would consider nibbling if it falls much lower, with third-quarter results due after the close on Oct. 20.
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SpaceX (SPCX) listed on June 12 at $135 per share, hit a record high of $211.39 on June 16, and now trades at about $145. Revenue rose 33% to $18.67 billion in 2025, and Elon Musk has said the company could reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. At its peak, the market cap reached $2.64 trillion, or 58 times the $45.3 billion in 2026 revenue analysts expected, while rising interest rates and Treasury yields pushed investors toward safer assets. In the first half of 2026, Starlink's $2.84 billion operating profit was offset by operating losses of $1.20 billion in space and $3.73 billion in AI. The author says he would not buy if the stock dips slightly below its IPO price, but would consider a small speculative long-term position if it falls much lower.
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SpaceX (SPCX) shares have risen about 35% from their August low as investor confidence grows, though they remain roughly 10% below their first-day closing price. The company's second-quarter report showed revenue up 92% year over year and a net loss cut almost in half. Starlink subscriptions doubled to 12 million, with more than 11,000 satellites in orbit, while xAI revenue rose 247% and it signed multiyear contracts with Alphabet and Anthropic. The author argues that a price-to-sales multiple of 68, far above the S&P 500's average of 3.8, does not justify the risk given a major lockup ending in December and the company's lack of profit, though he would consider buying at a different valuation.
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