The Buffett indicator, which divides the total value of U.S. stocks by GDP, stands at 234%, near its record high and well above the roughly 135% reached during the dot-com bubble. The CAPE ratio is 40.6, higher only in the dot-com period, while the S&P 500 has grown at an annualized pace of roughly 15% over the past 10 years, versus a historical average of 10%. The author argues the indicator ignores overseas revenue of large U.S. companies and the rapid expansion of liquidity, with M2 rising from $6.9 trillion to $23.3 trillion, so he does not see it as a clear warning sign. The author also says investors should not use it as a tool to time the market, since the S&P 500 has posted gains over every rolling 20-year period.
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Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 704.39 |
| Change that session | -0.01% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 759.85 |
| Change that session | -0.54% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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