Experts and policymakers at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok said AI has driven global growth and cushioned the energy price shock from the Middle East war, but its boom carries risks if investment falters. IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said global trade rose 8.3% over 2023–2025, versus about 4.6% without AI-related products. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh called AI the most consequential change to the global economy in his lifetime, with a huge benefit, but warned the path ahead would be bumpy. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that loss of confidence could create financial stability risks, and an IMF report projects a fall in AI investment could cut global GDP by 0.4% by 2028. Moody's Analytics warned that a prolonged conflict could puncture the boom through higher energy prices and tighter financial conditions.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Keywords
artificial intelligenceIMFFedGDP growth
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related news
- Science & Tech : Leaders weigh huge benefit , risks of AI fo
Leaders and experts at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok said the AI boom is a key driver of global growth but poses economic risks if investment in the technology falters. The IMF said AI spending on data centres and chips has cushioned the shock from higher energy prices caused by the Middle East war, and global trade rose 8.3% in 2023–2025 versus about 4.6% without AI-related products. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh called AI the 'most consequential change' to the global economy in his lifetime, with 'a huge benefit', but warned the path ahead would be 'bumpy'. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that a loss of confidence and money running away from AI could create financial stability risks, and an IMF report projected that lower AI investment could cut global GDP by 0.4% by 2028. Moody's Analytics warned a prolonged conflict could puncture the boom, while Georgieva said without safeguards 'the risks may exceed the opportunities'.
- Leaders weigh 'huge benefit,' risks of AI for global economy
Leaders at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok said the AI boom is a major driver of global growth but could pose economic risks if investment falters. The IMF said AI spending helped cushion the shock from higher energy prices caused by the Middle East war, and that global trade rose 8.3% over 2023–2025, versus about 4.6% without AI-related products. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh called AI the 'most consequential change' of his lifetime but warned the path ahead would be 'bumpy'. An IMF report projected that a decline in AI investment could reduce global GDP by 0.4% by 2028, while Moody's Analytics warned a prolonged conflict could 'puncture' the boom. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva added that without safeguards, 'the risks may exceed the opportunities'.
- IMF warns AI boom is widening global divide
The IMF warned that low-income, energy-importing countries outside the AI value chain risk falling further behind as the AI boom increasingly drives global growth. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva cautioned that relying on a single growth driver is risky and that AI could widen economic disparities. Debt-service costs in low-income countries rose from 8% to 14% of government revenue in recent years due to higher inflation and interest rates. Recent decisions on the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust will allow more than three times the concessional lending available before, and ten partners committed more than $100 million for capacity development. Georgieva also urged central banks to stay laser-focused on price stability.
- International Business: IMF chief urges co-operation on AI and war risks
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva urged international cooperation to tackle multiple risks, including rapid AI advances and a prolonged Middle East war, at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. The IMF slightly raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, well below the historical average, while warning of risks from a potential end to the AI investment boom, rising debt and the Middle East conflict. The Fund said that without the US-Israeli-led war against Iran and Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which caused a major energy shock, AI would have fuelled much stronger growth. US Treasury Under Secretary Erin Browne pushed back, citing record US stock highs and strong US output, and urged the IMF to take a more balanced view.
- Global Economy Struggles to Achieve Balance in Divided Times
At IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, economic officials from Argentina, Greece, Nigeria and Thailand agreed that all economies should put their fiscal houses in order, as the IMF projects 3.1% global growth in 2026. The IMF upgraded AI-driven economies while downgrading many fuel-importing and war-affected nations, and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that dependence on AI investment creates vulnerability to disappointment cycles. Georgieva named China's low domestic consumption and heavy exports, along with U.S. low savings and high debt and deficits, as the biggest sources of global imbalance. Argentina cut spending by 30% to eliminate a fiscal deficit of 5% of GDP and brought inflation down to approximately 30% from 211% in 2023, while Nigeria's central bank raised rates by 800 basis points in 2024, bringing inflation down about 20 percentage points to about 15%.
- China third-quarter growth narrowly beats forecasts
China's economy grew 4.5% in July–September from a year earlier, slightly above the 4.4% AFP poll forecast and up from 4.3% in the previous quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The figure still sits at the lower end of Beijing's 4.5–5.0% annual target, and officials described domestic demand as insufficient. September retail sales rose 1.1%, the fastest since March, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% over the first nine months. Exports, boosted by AI-related demand, remain a bright spot and could top last year's $1.2 trillion trade surplus, stoking tensions with the EU and US. The IMF recently lowered its forecast for China's annual growth this year to 4.5%.
Related markets
Latest news
- FinFET Technology - Global Strategic Business Report Just Released: AI and Data Centers Push FinFET Chip Market Toward $97 Billion
According to Research and Markets, the global FinFET technology market was valued at $38.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $97.1 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 16.7%. Demand for high-performance, energy-efficient chips across consumer electronics, data centers, automotive, AI and IoT is driving growth. The CPU segment is forecast to reach $36.6 billion by 2030, while China is the fastest-growing market, with an 18% CAGR and $20.8 billion by 2030. The report also assesses the impact of tariffs on semiconductor supply chains and profiles companies including TSMC, Samsung, Intel and NVIDIA.
- The sorrow of Europe's “big brother” economy: Bonds keep selling off heavily after a “turbulent weekend”
French 10-year government bond yields rose 0.14 percentage points to 4.93% after a turbulent weekend, while the spread over German bonds returned to 1.47 percentage points. Nationwide protests over rising living costs and student education conditions turned into widespread rioting and looting; the government said at least 3,000 shops and businesses were looted, and the French retail federation estimated damages could reach “several hundred million euros.” More than 2,500 people are under formal investigation, 67 of them detained, and several cities have imposed curfews. President Macron rejected Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez’s resignation offer, even though Nuñez admitted police were deployed too thinly for protests of over 550,000 people, against an expected 200,000. Opposition politicians and the mayors of Paris and Marseille criticized the government for letting police lose control of the situation.
- President Donald Trump Claims, "We Don't Have Inflation, and Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation," but a New Report Strongly Disagrees
Although the stock market has posted strong returns under President Trump, the article argues his inflation-driving policies may be the biggest threat to the AI-driven bull market. A New York Federal Reserve report by three economists finds that by February 2026, tariffs had added 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation, and each percentage point increase in average tariffs lifted consumer prices by about a quarter of a point after one year. Beyond tariffs, the Iran war and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed fuel prices sharply higher, with fuel oil up 74.0% and gasoline up 34.2% over the past year, while overall CPI rose 3.7%. The article warns that persistent inflation could prompt the Fed to raise rates more aggressively, slowing AI infrastructure investment and sending stocks lower.
- Bitcoin ETFs just saw their biggest day in a month thanks entirely to BlackRock
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $526.6 million on Monday, the largest daily net inflow in nearly a month, driven entirely by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which pulled in $665.2 million, its biggest daily inflow since Oct. 7 last year, according to SoSoValue data. Fidelity's FBTC lost $83.6 million and Grayscale's GBTC shed $54.9 million, while the remaining funds recorded no net flows. The inflow more than erased last week's $228.5 million of withdrawals, but funds remain about $90.5 million in net outflows for October, according to CoinDesk calculations. Ether funds moved the opposite way, losing $103.3 million in their fourth consecutive session of outflows, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $95.4 million of that.
- A Big4 bank cut deposit rates in the morning, then raised them again in the afternoon
VietinBank cut its deposit rates for terms of 6 months and longer on the morning of Oct. 20, then restored them to pre-adjustment levels by the afternoon. Its afternoon rate board showed 3.5% per year for 6 to under 12 months, 5.9% for 12 to under 24 months and 6% for 24 months and longer, versus 3%, 5.4% and 5.5% in the morning. Rates for terms under 6 months stayed unchanged, including 2.1% for 1 to under 3 months and 2.4% for 3 to under 6 months. The move came as banks followed the State Bank of Vietnam's guidance to cut deposit rates by at least 0.5 percentage points for terms of 6 months and longer, and Vietcombank and Agribank were among those reducing rates.
- IVV vs. SPY: Which S&P 500 ETF Is the Better Buy for Long-Term Investors?
The article compares two ETFs that track the S&P 500, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which have nearly identical holdings. The main difference is the expense ratio: IVV charges 0.03% a year, one-third of SPY's 0.09%, and its distribution yield is about 1.1% versus 1% for SPY. SPY's high liquidity remains valuable for active traders. The article concludes that IVV is the better choice for long-term investors, since lower costs can compound over time.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.