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interest ratesNZDUSDANZexchange rates
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Related tickers and likely impact
NZD/USD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: high
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/15/2026 | 0.56215 |
| Change that session | +0.52% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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- Inflation expected to ease to 3 . 7 % in September year but cash rate still forecast to rise
Markets price about a 70% chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lift the Official Cash Rate, now 2.75%, on October 28, and a 100% chance by December. ANZ says that if Q3 CPI lands near its 3.7% forecast, an October hike stays on the table given the weaker NZ dollar and higher oil prices since September, with tradeable inflation seen at 4.2% and non-tradeable at 3.5%. Westpac expects the central bank to look past the slight dip in headline inflation, as fuel prices rebounded late in the quarter and inflation for the December quarter could exceed the 4.1% of the June quarter. BNZ believes the bank will keep lifting the cash rate, including at its upcoming October meeting, due to concerns over fuel prices and the weak NZ dollar.
- Higher prices for fuel suggests inflation pressures have strengthened
Stats NZ data showed petrol prices rose 6.4% from August in September and diesel climbed nearly 8%, as global energy prices stayed elevated amid renewed US-Iran tensions. Fuel was more than 24% higher than a year earlier, and diesel was close to 56% more expensive. Food prices were flat for the month, but the annual rate edged up to 2.4% from 1.9% in August. Onion prices jumped 86% over the year, a record. Electricity, gas, airfares, accommodation and rents also rose. ASB senior economist Mark Smith called the figures considerably stronger than expected, with prices up 1.4% for the month and underlying inflation at 1.1% over the three months to September. Headline inflation hit 4.1% in the year to June, and the annual rate is expected to dip in the September quarter, but Smith said this would likely be temporary. Higher inflation for longer would be a major headache for the Reserve Bank.
- Expect 10yr benchmark bond yield to trade in a range of 6.90% to 7.25% over the course of the next one month
Puneet Pal of PGIM India Mutual Fund expects yields to keep trending higher as the RBI starts monetary tightening from its June policy meeting, with policy rates possibly rising 50-75 bps by the end of 2026. Money market yields up to one year, near 8%, are viewed as attractive for short-term investors. During the week, government bond yields rose 3-6 bps as the INR hit a record low of 96.83/USD and the RBI announced a USD 5bn buy/sell swap. Analysts expect the balance of payments deficit to be around USD 50bn, so measures to attract dollar inflows may soon follow, though he sees no comparison with 2013 since inflation is below 4%.
- Gold, silver prices on October 18: Check latest rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, other cities
Higher interest rates continue to weigh on gold, which pays no yield, while markets watch global economic risks and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Gold prices in India follow international spot bullion, USD/INR currency moves and retail demand ahead of the festival season. Leading jewellers kept prices mostly unchanged on October 18, 2026: Joyalukkas and Malabar Gold & Diamonds quoted 22K gold at ₹13,535 per gram in most states, while Tanishq listed ₹13,575. For 24K gold, Malabar quoted ₹14,765 per gram and Tanishq ₹14,809 (estimated). Small price gaps between brands reflect store-level pricing, inventory costs and regional logistics.
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Koichi Hamada, Yale professor emeritus of economics and former special adviser to Japan's prime minister, argues that Japan needs higher interest rates because the weak yen is straining the economy. The OECD estimates a purchasing-power-parity rate of about 93 yen per dollar, versus an actual range of 150–160, which makes Japanese goods cheap abroad but squeezes importers and pushes up consumer prices. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% last month, the highest in 31 years, but the author considers this insufficient with US short-term rates near 4% and the carry trade continuing. He urges BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to tighten the money supply and raise rates more aggressively.
- Vietnam govt proposes double - digit GDP growth target for 2027
The Vietnamese government has proposed a GDP growth target of at least 10% for 2027, along with per capita GDP of 6,100 U.S. dollars and consumer price inflation around 4.5%. Prime Minister Le Minh Hung presented the proposal at the opening of the second session of the 16th National Assembly, pledging appropriate management of interest and exchange rates and measures to lower lending rates. Credit would be directed toward production, exports, science and technology, and small and medium-sized enterprises. The government said 14 of 15 socio-economic targets for 2026 are expected to be met or exceeded, with GDP up 9.95% year on year in the third quarter and 9.01% in the first nine months.
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