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RBIinterest ratesinflationIndia
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Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 101.70 |
| Change that session | -0.28% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Global rate pressures , inflation risks may drive 50 bps more RBI hikes by February 2027 : Emkay
Emkay Global Financial Services expects the RBI to raise rates by another 50 basis points by February 2027, with 25-basis-point hikes in December 2026 and February 2027 bringing the current cycle's total to 75 basis points. Analysis of the October MPC minutes shows the share of CPI items with inflation above 4% rose from 20% in March 2026 to 46% in September, though there is limited evidence these pressures are firmly embedded in corporate pricing. Higher rates in major economies could also push India to maintain a wide enough interest-rate differential to attract foreign debt inflows. The RBI raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% in October, while GDP grew 7.8% in the first quarter of FY2026-27. This is Emkay's assessment and does not indicate a confirmed central bank decision.
- SBI Research retains call for 50 - bps December rate hike amid broadening inflationary pressures
SBI Research keeps its forecast of a 50-basis-point repo rate hike in December, citing persistent inflation, high crude prices and the RBI's shift to tighter policy, even though rate cuts have been ruled out near term. Analysing the October MPC minutes, it says Governor Sanjay Malhotra focused more on future risks and possible further tightening. Two options are outlined: a 50 bps repo hike to 6 per cent, or a 25 bps hike to 5.75 per cent with an asymmetric widening of the LAF corridor (MSF at 6.25 per cent, SDF at 5.50 per cent). Commodities making up 75 per cent of CPI weight rose from 25 in August to 31 in September, signalling broader price pressures, with inflation expected to peak below 6.5 per cent in November. The next MPC meeting is set for December 2–4.
- RBI MPC minutes : Economists maintain back - to - back repo rate hike stance
Economists on Thursday expect the RBI to keep hiking rates back-to-back, as the October MPC minutes signalled a more hawkish tone that leans toward future risks and tightening. SBI Research still expects a 50 bps hike in December, either as a straight 50 bps repo increase or as a 25 bps repo hike combined with an asymmetric widening of the LAF corridor. Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh of SBI warned that broadening inflation and persistent rupee weakness call for close RBI monitoring, while Radhika Rao of DBS Bank said the door stays open for a back-to-back hike in December as inflation is set to reach 6 per cent in CY Q4. The rupee has strengthened about 1.5 per cent against the USD this month on forex regulatory measures and IPO inflows, though bond yields remain high and may come under pressure again as oil supply fears return.
- RBI flags widening inflation risks , puts rate cuts on ice
- Higher inflation, price pressure spillover led to RBI hiking rate : MPC minutes
The RBI's six-member Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 per cent on October 7, its first hike in nearly four years, according to the released minutes. Rising inflation and signs of price pressures spreading across a range of goods drove the decision. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the policy stance was shifting to calibrated tightening, meaning rate cuts were off the table in the near term. The share of CPI basket commodities with inflation above 4 per cent rose to 37 per cent in August from 20 per cent in March. Nagesh Kumar and Ram Singh, two external members, preferred keeping the stance neutral, and the duration and extent of further hikes depend on growth and inflation developments.
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At its October policy meeting, the RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly three years, and shifted its stance from neutral to calibrated tightening. The minutes show all six MPC members voted for the hike, but Nagesh Kumar and Ram Singh opposed the change in stance and preferred to remain neutral. Singh warned the shift could signal an extended cycle of rate hikes that could hurt demand and private investment. The RBI raised its FY2027 CPI inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5% in August and its GDP growth projection to 7.1% from 6.7%, with inflation projected at 6% in the third quarter before easing to 5.7% in the fourth. The central bank said rate cuts are off the table near term, leaving only a hike or a pause, and the next MPC meeting is scheduled for December 2-4, 2026.
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