A pivotal week for markets is starting, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest interest rate decision. More than a third of S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report third-quarter earnings.
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 759.97 |
| Change that session | -0.52% |
MSFT
• NeutralMicrosoft
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Systems Software |
| Market cap | $3.9T |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 524.51 |
| Change that session | +0.66% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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- The S&P 500 Is Just Shy of a Record With 10 Weeks Left in the Year. Here's What History Says Could Happen Next.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,757.17 on Oct. 21, about 0.8% below its record close of 7,818.93 on Oct. 6, and is up roughly 13% in 2026 even after the Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time in over three years. The author checked every year since 1928 when the index was within 1% of a record on Oct. 21: all 16 such years set at least one new record close before year-end, though some, such as 1993, did not until late December (Dec. 27). A new record does not guarantee a strong finish, however: from Oct. 21 to year-end the index rose in 14 of the 16 years, and the median year gained around 4%. The author notes the sample is small and points to current risks, including the 10-year Treasury yield topping 5.3% in early October, its highest level since 2002, and a rally concentrated in stocks linked to artificial intelligence (AI).
- The S&P 500 Is Just Shy of a Record With 10 Weeks Left in the Year: Here's What History Says Could Happen Next
The S&P 500 closed at 7,757.17 on Oct. 21, about 0.8% below its record close of 7,818.93 on Oct. 6, with around 10 weeks left in the year. The index is up about 13% in 2026, even after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate in September for the first time in over three years. Reviewing daily closes back to 1928, the author found 16 years in which the index was within 1% of a record on Oct. 21, and all 16 set at least one new record close before year-end. A new high did not guarantee a strong finish, however: from Oct. 21 to year-end the index fell in 1964 and 1968, and the median year gained about 4%. The article also flags risks, including the 10-year Treasury yield topping 5.3% in early October and a rally concentrated in a narrow set of AI-linked stocks.
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The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.06% on October 15, its first close above 5% since July 19, 2007, a level viewed as a key anchor for pricing across the economy. The article compares this with 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% in the following 12 months and 11% over the next five years, after yields had risen 26% in the prior four years. Yields have also climbed 26% in the past year as the central bank raises rates to fight stubborn inflation. Key differences include a normal yield curve today versus an inverted one in 2007, stricter bank rules after Dodd-Frank, and a stock market dominated by profitable tech firms. The article argues investors should stay focused on high-quality companies for the long term.
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- Stocks sink as traders brace for tech earnings, central bank decisions
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