Brent crude near $112 a barrel on Oct. 22 would normally push bond yields up, yet Treasuries rallied as stocks fell, as traders cut bets on a Federal Reserve hike, with the odds of an October hike at about 5% and a December hike at roughly 75%. Fed officials including Governor Christopher Waller have signaled the central bank could wait, while the five-year breakeven rate stayed at about 2.4% a year, unchanged from before the war. Mortgage rates eased, with the 30-year fixed rate falling to 7.32% from 7.40% per Freddie Mac, after seven straight weeks of increases. Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September to a record low, and Fannie Mae now projects the 30-year rate averaging 7.4% in the fourth quarter, up from 6.8% a month earlier. Buyers may gain some negotiating room, but a rate buydown lowers the rate, not the purchase price.
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