The S&P 500 has climbed roughly 100% since the start of 2023, driven by enthusiasm for AI and growth stocks, but oil-driven inflation has become a headwind. The Fed raised its federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75%–4% last month, its first hike in three years, and its minutes warned that another increase is likely. CME FedWatch shows a probability above 88% of a rate increase at the December meeting. The article notes that higher rates can pressure corporate earnings and consumer spending, but history shows the index has typically recovered and gained afterward, and the author argues high-rate periods can present buying opportunities.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
Fedinterest ratesinflationS&P 500
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: high
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 101.98 |
| Change that session | +0.20% |
EUR/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 1.12125 |
| Change that session | -0.24% |
XAU/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 4,140.75 |
| Change that session | -0.60% |
BTC/USDT
▼ Likely negativeBitcoin
Relevance: medium
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 81,938.40 |
| Change that session | -0.22% |
NVDA
▼ Likely negativeNvidia
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.2T |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 217.09 |
| Change that session | +1.38% |
PAXG/USDT
▼ Likely negativePAX Gold
Relevance: medium
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Real-world assets |
| Market cap | $1.8B |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 4,133.66 |
| Change that session | -1.08% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Inflation Just Spooked the Market -- But There Still Good News for Patient Investors
September's CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, up from 0.4% and 3.4% in the previous report. The hotter data raised the odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes, and on that day the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.8%. October 14 was the 18th day in 2026 the S&P 500 fell more than 1%, which the author says is not unusual. To illustrate long-term results, the author notes $10,000 invested in an S&P 500 ETF in October 2006 would be worth $56,170 in share price alone, or $80,970 with dividends reinvested, versus $16,697 needed to match 2006 purchasing power.
- US Stock Futures Rise Ahead of Busy Earnings Week: Markets Wrap
US stock futures rose and oil edged lower as traders prepared for a busy earnings week, with more than 70 S&P 500 companies reporting, including Tesla and Meta. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on Friday, its worst week since June, while the VIX jumped to a four-month high as tech shares slumped. Brent crude fell 0.7% to near $110 a barrel, adding to inflation worries and complicating the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's Oct. 28 decision. Investors are watching whether heavy AI infrastructure spending will deliver adequate returns, while geopolitical risks rise amid strained US-Ukraine relations. Analysts describe a period of heightened uncertainty, with Asia especially exposed to chips, higher yields and energy prices.
- What Up w / Stocks , Cryptos , Gold & Silver ? October 19th , 2026 | Vero Patriot
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their worst weekly performance since June, and many AI-linked companies entered bear market territory with declines of 20% or more. Hotter-than-expected inflation, with CPI at 3.7% and PPI at 6.2%, led investors to price in at least an 89% chance of another Fed rate hike this year, though most still expect no change at this month's meeting. WTI crude closed above $101 per barrel, while the 9% of companies that had reported third-quarter earnings averaged 29% growth. Year to date, the Dow is up 7%, the S&P 500 12% and the Nasdaq 13%, while Bitcoin is down 8%, Ether 19%, gold 3% and silver 19%. Based on earnings, the article says the S&P 500's P/E of 26.12 versus a historical average of 16.24 implies a maximum downside of 38%.
- The 10-Year Treasury Is Above 5% for the First Time in Almost 20 Years. History Says This Is How the S&P 500 Index Will Perform Over the Next 12 Months.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.06% on October 15, its first close above 5% since July 19, 2007, a level viewed as a key anchor for pricing across the economy. The article compares this with 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% in the following 12 months and 11% over the next five years, after yields had risen 26% in the prior four years. Yields have also climbed 26% in the past year as the central bank raises rates to fight stubborn inflation. Key differences include a normal yield curve today versus an inverted one in 2007, stricter bank rules after Dodd-Frank, and a stock market dominated by profitable tech firms. The article argues investors should stay focused on high-quality companies for the long term.
- The 10 - Year Treasury Is Above 5 % for the First Time in Almost 20 Years . History Says This Is How the S & P 500 Index Will Perform Over the Next 12 Months .
On October 15, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.06%, having crossed 5% about three weeks earlier for the first time since July 19, 2007. The article draws parallels to 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% over the next 12 months and 11% over the following five years, after the yield had risen 26% in the prior four years. Today the yield has risen 26% over the past 12 months as the Federal Reserve raises rates against stubborn inflation, and the S&P 500 sits near record highs. Key differences, however, include stricter bank rules since the Dodd-Frank Act of July 2010, a normal yield curve instead of an inverted one, and an index led by profitable tech giants. The article concludes that long-term investors should stay the course and invest early and often.
- US markets weighed down by extended sell - off in the tech sector
U.S. stocks fell Friday as a broad tech selloff pushed the S&P 500 down 1.1% to 7,659.44 and the Nasdaq down 2.1% to 26,140.03, capping the market's worst week since late June. Chip stocks led the declines, with Micron down 5.6%, AMD down 6%, Broadcom down 4.5% and Intel down 5.8%, as investors worry AI spending may slow when tech companies rely heavily on debt and bond yields are at multi-year highs. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.09% after topping 5.30% earlier this month, its highest level since 2002, while traders now see a 74.3% chance of a Fed rate hike at the December meeting, up from 50.2% a month ago. Brent crude rose 3.7% to $109.86 per barrel amid supply pressure from the Iran war, and U.S. gasoline averaged $4.33 a gallon, versus $3.06 a year earlier.
Related markets
Latest news
- Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures mixed as AI trade rebound stalls
US stock futures were mixed as chip stocks came under pressure and investors turned to a wave of earnings this week. Dow Jones futures rose 0.1%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.5%. The recent AI-stock rebound stalled after Elice (0158S0.KQ), a South Korean data center provider, debuted in Seoul and fell 32% on its first day of trading. General Motors, United Airlines, Netflix, Tesla and Meta are due to report this week, while housing starts and pending home sales data come out Tuesday. Brent crude was at $109 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $98.
- Equity weakness could damp demand for bitcoin after biggest ETF inflows in a month
Bitcoin fell about 1.1%, ether dropped 1.7% and the CoinDesk 20 index lost roughly 1.6% over the past 24 hours, pulled lower by Asian stock declines and rising oil. QCP Capital warned that further equity weakness could damp crypto demand and threaten the $80,000 support level if sustained. Still, spot U.S. bitcoin ETFs drew about $527 million in net inflows on Monday, their biggest in a month, with BlackRock's IBIT taking in $665 million while Fidelity and Grayscale saw outflows. Ether ETFs lost $103.3 million, their fourth straight day of outflows. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5.13% and Brent is near $110, while prediction markets price in a 25 basis-point Fed rate hike next month.
- SSI Securities' Q3 2026 profit revealed
SSI estimates Q3 2026 revenue at VND 3,219 billion and pre-tax profit at VND 1,388 billion, with pre-tax profit down 24% year on year. For the first nine months of 2026, consolidated revenue is estimated at VND 9,871 billion and pre-tax profit at VND 4,510 billion, up 5% and 11% respectively, completing 77% of the full-year profit plan. As of September 30, 2026, the parent company's total assets reached VND 92,441 billion and equity VND 38,057 billion. In Q3, SSI held an 11.09% share of brokerage on HOSE, margin lending revenue rose 11% to VND 1,115 billion with a margin loan balance of VND 38,294 billion, and investment activities contributed about 46% of quarterly revenue.
- Inflation Just Hit 3.7%. Here's Why Walmart and Costco Could Be the Biggest Winners.
The US Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% over the 12 months ending in September, up from 3.4% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gasoline was the biggest driver, up 9.1% for the month and 34.2% over the year, while core inflation was 2.6%. Food away from home rose 3.5% over the year, faster than the 1.8% increase in food bought to cook at home. The article argues Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST) benefit from thin markups and value pricing, with Costco's fiscal fourth-quarter sales up 11.2% to $93.9 billion and Walmart's revenue up 5.9% to $187.9 billion. Walmart trades above its own five-year median on forward earnings, while Costco is near its historical average, and the author says neither is a bargain.
- AI chip stocks bounce back as hyperscaler earnings loom, META equity raise in focus
AI chip stocks rebounded on October 19, with the Nasdaq up 1.3%, NVIDIA gaining 1.38% and Meta Platforms slipping 0.55%. Evercore ISI sees the recent pullback as coming ahead of a strong hyperscaler earnings season, and NVIDIA expects top five hyperscaler capex to reach nearly $800 billion in 2026. Meta guided 2026 capex to $130 billion to $145 billion, while second-quarter free cash flow fell to $784 million from $8.55 billion a year earlier. Analysts expect a Meta stock sale, and according to the article, the market is reportedly comfortable with about $30 billion, though Meta has not announced an offering. The article notes H100 pricing has held up, NVIDIA says it has supply for about 70% of demand, and GPU-backed loans are seen as the go-to option over unsecured debt at 15%.
- Mt. Gox Pushes Repayment Deadline to 2027 With $2.8B in Bitcoin Still to Distribute
Mt. Gox's rehabilitation trustee, Nobuaki Kobayashi, has pushed the repayment deadline back one year to October 31, 2027, with a Tokyo court's approval, because many creditors have not completed the required procedures or ran into problems. It is the fourth one-year extension, and about 19,500 creditors had received funds by the October 2026 deadline. Arkham data shows wallets linked to Mt. Gox still hold about 34,388 BTC, worth roughly $2.8 billion, with no transfers since June apart from a move of 10,422.65 BTC, mostly to a new wallet. Observers now see the remaining coins as a smaller risk, with one analyst calling the repayments 'more of a recurring headline than a real source of downside pressure.'
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.