The current bull market is in its fourth year, with the S&P 500 up more than 15% over the past six months and the Nasdaq up nearly 20%. The article outlines three headwinds: long-term Treasury yields at their highest since 2002, oil prices elevated by the Iran war with Brent near $106 per barrel (up more than 55% this year), and heavy concentration in tech, where the 10 largest companies make up around 40% of the S&P 500's value. The Shiller CAPE ratio sits just over 40, well above its long-term average of 17 and close to its dot-com-era record of 44. Citing Crestmont Research, the article notes the S&P 500 has produced positive total returns in every rolling 20-year period since 1919, which it presents as a reason long-term investing has historically paid off.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on fool.com ↗
Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/14/2026 | 728.95 |
| Change that session | -1.97% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/14/2026 | 769.60 |
| Change that session | -1.08% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Stock Market Today: Tech Futures Rebound As AI Names Bounce; AMD, CoreWeave, Nvidia Rally (Live Coverage)
- Tech Stock Rebound Nudges US Equity Futures Mostly Higher Pre-Bell
- AI Stocks Face Earnings Gut Check As Spending Jitters Mount
- A Repeat Of Black Monday Would Send The S & P 500 Down More Than 1 , 500 Points And Wipe Out More Than $13 Trillion In Stock Market Value
The article calculates that applying Black Monday's 20.47% S&P 500 decline of October 1987 to Friday's close would erase about 1,568 points, leaving the index near 6,092, and wipe out roughly $14.0 trillion of market value. It stresses this is simple arithmetic, not a prediction. On Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 7,659.44, the Dow slipped 0.3% to 52,002.41 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.1% to 26,140.03; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had their worst week since June, led by chip stocks. Michael Burry, reportedly short NVIDIA and Micron, wrote that markets may be near a major top, pointing to leverage from volatility-targeting and momentum strategies. Under the circuit-breaker rules, the 20% decline level sits near 6,128, so a 1987-size drop would trigger a market-wide halt for the rest of the day.
- Tech stocks stumbled. Now comes a crucial week for Wall Street.
- Treasuries Rallied as Tech Slid , and the Crowded Bet Against Bonds Felt It
Last week, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell about 17 basis points while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.5%, the largest same-week declines in both since the April 2025 tariff turmoil, according to Bloomberg. The move caught investors who had heavily bet on a deeper bond slump after 10-year yields climbed for seven months to their highest levels in more than two decades. A sell-off in AI-linked tech stocks triggered the rally, and trend-following commodity trading advisers exited their bearish Treasury futures positions. Traders had at one point priced about a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike in October and still expect one increase by year-end and another in 2027. Meanwhile, investment-grade companies, led by megacap technology, have sold about $1.7 trillion of bonds this year, up 29% from a year earlier.
Related markets
Latest news
- TRX Gold to Present at Red Cloud's Fall Mining Showcase 2026
TRX Gold will present at Red Cloud's Fall Mining Showcase 2026, an in-person conference at the Omni King Edward Hotel in Toronto on October 28 and 29, 2026. Stephen Mullowney is scheduled to present on Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern. The release describes the company as a gold producer advancing the Buckreef Gold Project in Tanzania, which includes an established open pit and a 2,000 tonnes per day plant. The May 2025 PEA outlines average annual gold production of 62,000 oz over 17.6 years.
- Tesla Stock vs. the S&P 500: Which Investment Wins Through 2030?
The article argues Tesla trades at roughly 203 times this year's expected earnings and 13 times expected sales, a valuation that looks very expensive given gross margin pressure and a slower-than-expected robotaxi rollout. The flying Roadster, slated for production in 2028, is unlikely to make a meaningful sales or earnings contribution before 2030. The author thinks a Tesla-SpaceX merger by the end of the decade, likely an all-stock deal, is more likely than not and would be a key factor in how Tesla stock performs against the S&P 500 through 2030.
- SpaceX surprises Wall Street with Oct. 20 earnings date — here's why
SpaceX (SPCX) will release earnings on Oct. 20 after the market close, a surprise since earnings dates are usually shared weeks in advance. Evercore ISI analyst Kutgun Maral says possible reasons include putting updated financials on record before new financing or getting ahead of major lock-up releases, though scheduling is also possible. Reuters reported SpaceX is seeking $40 billion in financing to buy advanced Nvidia AI chips, including about $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade debt, with Apollo expected to lead. The lock-up schedule includes 1.30 billion shares two days after earnings, 329 million on 10/24, and a remaining 857 million tranche of the 180-day group.
- AEP Partners with Amazon and X-energy to Explore Advanced Nuclear Energy in Indiana
American Electric Power (AEP) has announced a joint development agreement with X-energy to evaluate the feasibility of a 960-megawatt advanced nuclear project at a former coal plant site in Sullivan County, Indiana. Amazon is supporting development through a funding agreement. If the project reaches a final investment decision and is built, Amazon intends to buy the power under a long-term contract covering the facility's costs and operations. The initial project would include 12 Xe-100 units of 80 MW each, and the companies say it could create jobs, expand the local tax base and strengthen the grid for more than 60 years. AEP says the agreements include the financial safeguards it considers essential for any nuclear project to move forward.
- Talamore Marks One Year at Coffee with Major Advances Toward a 2027 Construction Decision
Talamore Mining marks one year since closing its acquisition of the Coffee Gold Project in Yukon, Canada, from Newmont Corporation on October 17, 2025. The company has assembled a financing package of up to C$688 million, including a C$149.5 million equity offering, a C$450 million secured project debt facility and up to C$88 million from a warrant early-exercise program. A primary road permit received in August 2026 allows completion of the 214-kilometre Northern Access Route from Dawson City. The February 2026 Preliminary Economic Assessment outlined a 13-year open-pit heap leach mine with an after-tax NPV (5%) of US$2.3 billion and an after-tax IRR of 47.8%. G Mining Services is completing the Feasibility Study, expected in Q1 2027, ahead of a construction decision targeted for the first half of 2027.
- Tiger Gold Extends Mineralization to the South at Ceibal, Drilling 268 m @ 0.5 g/t Au from Surface
Tiger Gold reported assay results from hole CEDDH-023 at its Ceibal target within the Quinchía Gold Project in Colombia. The hole intersected 268 metres grading 0.5 g/t Au from surface, extending mineralization south into a previously untested part of the corridor. Mineralization remains open to the west and southwest, where additional holes are testing for extension, and assays from Ceibal and Tesorito are pending. The drilling is intended to support a maiden Mineral Resource estimate, targeted for near the end of Q1 2027.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.