According to Opening Bell Daily, since 1950 the year after a midterm (year three of the presidential cycle) has been the S&P 500's strongest year by a wide margin, averaging a 17.2% gain. Only two such years saw declines, in 2011 and 2015, each by less than 1%. Over the 12 months after all 19 midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 rose an average of 15.1%, though only 11 of 19 midterm years finished higher. As of noon on Oct. 27, SPY was up 12.83% year to date, while the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.00% on Oct. 23. The article says the current backdrop looks tougher than average and that the presidential cycle reflects correlation rather than cause, with earnings, rates and valuations the main drivers of returns.
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SPYS&P 500midterm electionsDonald Trumpbonds
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
▲ Likely positiveSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/27/2026 | 769.72 |
| Change that session | +0.57% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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