US Fed likely to hold rates in October , hike by 25 bps by year - end : CareEdge Global

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• Gold Falls Below $4 , 150 Ahead of Federal Reserve Policy Meeting

  Gold slipped below $4,150 per troy ounce on Monday after an early rise, as US inflation data and Federal Reserve projections kept the rate outlook in focus. The US consumer price index rose 0.6% in September from August and 3.7% from a year earlier, with gasoline supplying more than half the monthly increase, while the dollar strengthened. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% on Sept. 16, and 12 of 18 policymakers projected a year-end midpoint of 4.125%, though those projections do not commit it to another hike. Gold pays no interest, so higher yields and the dollar partly explain its 8.5% drop in September, according to the World Gold Council.

  econotimes.com·19/10, 20:15▼ XAU/USD▼ PAXG/USDT▼ XAUT/USDTgoldFedinflation
• Will the Fed Raise Rates This Month? Here's What Markets Say.

  The latest CPI report showed September inflation came in hotter than expected: headline CPI rose 3.7% year over year and 0.6% from August, while core CPI rose 2.6% year over year and 0.3% monthly. This suggests the Fed could hike for a second straight time at its Oct. 27-28 meeting. However, futures traders price an 85.1% chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.75% to 4% in October and a 74.1% chance it resumes hiking in early December. The two-year Treasury yield has eased to 4.73% from 4.93% in September, signaling lower expectations for hikes, though it remains above the current rate. The author notes that stocks tend to perform better when the Fed moves slowly, and sees new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in the role since May, as an incrementalist.

  Yahoo Finance·19/10, 13:42▲ DXY▼ PAXG/USDT▼ XAUT/USDT▼ XAU/USDFedinterest ratesgold
• Gold Prices Rise Above $4,200 in Futures Trading as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Ease

  Gold rose above $4,200 an ounce in US futures on Monday as traders scaled back expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike after comments from Chair Kevin Warsh. Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,180.29, while US gold futures rose 0.5% to $4,200.92. The implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the next meeting fell below 20%, after US inflation data released the previous week exceeded expectations. Silver, platinum and palladium also gained, while the US Dollar Index was roughly flat at 101.80. ANZ maintains a positive long-term view and expects gold to rise above $5,000 an ounce during 2027, though elevated bond yields and a strong dollar could pressure prices in the near term.

  Yahoo Finance·19/10, 09:12▲ XAU/USD▲ PAXG/USDT▲ XAUT/USDT▼ DXYgoldXAUUSDFed
• Sterling today: Pound edges lower; AI jitters cloud dollar outlook

  Sterling slipped 0.11% to $1.3314 and the euro fell 0.31% to $1.1203, its lowest close-equivalent level since Oct. 14, as AI-driven stock market jitters pulled U.S. rate expectations lower and called the dollar's safe-haven status into question. According to ING, the two-year U.S. OIS/SOFR rate has dropped 25 basis points since the Oct. 14 CPI print, moves ING's Francesco Pesole attributes almost entirely to AI concerns rather than macro factors. ING still sees a December Fed hike as a likely outcome and says the dollar index could return to 101 in the coming weeks. The euro also faces pressure from French protests, with the 10-year OAT-Bund spread hovering around 135-140 basis points.

  Yahoo Finance·19/10, 08:54▼ GBP/USD• DXYGBPUSDUS dollarinterest rates
• US Dollar Price Forecast: Fed Hike Bets Fade, DXY Tests 102.18 as EUR/USD, GBP/USD Slip

  The dollar softened as bets on an October Fed hike faded: Deutsche Bank strategists put the probability of a hike next month at about 15%, down from 30%, while CME FedWatch shows roughly an 84% chance the Fed holds at its October 27-28 meeting. Still, traders price about a 92% chance of a December hike. The euro is weighed down by political and fiscal worries in France, while sterling is holding up ahead of UK inflation data on October 21st and the Autumn budget on October 28, which will test the case for a Bank of England hike in November. The DXY is trading around 102.01, testing 102.18 resistance with 101.77 support below.

  Yahoo Finance·19/10, 08:27▲ DXY▼ EUR/USD▼ GBP/USD▼ XAU/USDUS dollarFedinterest rates
• US Fed likely to hold rates in October, hike by 25 bps by year-end: CareEdge Globalmiddleeaststar.com·17/10, 13:45▲ DXY▼ XAU/USD▼ BTC/USDT▼ EUR/USDFedinterest ratesUS dollar

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