Attention has shifted from US tariffs and the Strait of Hormuz closure to the AI boom, bond yields and public debt, but the author argues inflation, still high in the US and elsewhere, shapes all of these. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, mainly due to the Hormuz energy shock, while tariff effects still show up in inflation data. Using the Global Linkages Lab model, the author estimates US prices are 0.3% above their pre-2025 trend, with core goods 1.8% higher than in December 2024. Persistent inflation is attributed to successive supply shocks spreading across sectors and countries, and to trade-policy uncertainty, as about 70% of threatened or announced US tariffs were never imposed yet still moved markets.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Original headline: What driving persistent inflation ?
Read the original on interest.co.nz ↗
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inflationcentral bankinterest rates
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Related tickers and likely impact
NZD/USD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 0.57007 |
| Change that session | +0.29% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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