Jim Paulsen of the Paulsen Perspectives Substack argues that the post-midterm rally may disappoint, as many expect a strong year-end. He says the November-to-April period has been weaker than average when tightening conditions accelerate over the summer. He cites this summer's oil price spike, rising bond yields, a flatter yield curve, a stall in real money supply growth, a stronger US dollar, falling real wages and higher inflation as restrictive forces. He suspects investors may be disappointed and move from overweight positions into more defensive holdings, which could accelerate the downside.
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midterm electionsoil pricesinflationUS dollarS&P 500
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Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 704.40 |
| Change that session | -0.01% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 759.97 |
| Change that session | -0.52% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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