Democrats won control of both the House and Senate in the 3 November midterm elections, which investors see as a major test for US assets. The article argues an opposition-controlled Congress could narrow the policy risk premium, but the risk shifts to the debt ceiling in mid-2027 and to tariffs targeting trade-surplus economies. On 21 October, the 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.12%, up more than 100 basis points from late October 2025, while the effective fed funds rate stayed near 3.88%. More than half of the 10-year yield comes from term premium, which is sensitive to fiscal decisions and the risk of the Fed losing independence, while legislative gridlock could limit major changes to taxes, spending and regulation. The debt ceiling is projected to be reached at about USD 41,100 billion in mid-2027, while the TGA balance of about USD 883 billion in mid-October could drive liquidity swings as the Treasury draws it down.
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Original headline: Đảng Dân chủ thắng, thị trường tài chính Mỹ sẽ ra sao?
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SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/04/2026 | 766.73 |
| Change that session | +1.64% |
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