The Fed held rates steady at its October 29, 2026 meeting after earlier hikes, and Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has run above target for close to 6 years and that the Fed will deliver price stability. Citing CME Group's FedWatch, the article puts the probability of another hike at the December 2026 meeting at 70.9%, and 79% for January. It compares past cycles: Volcker's hikes to 20% in 1979–1981 triggered a recession and a more than 20% fall in the S&P 500, Greenspan's 1994–1995 hikes led to a soft landing, and Powell's 2022–2023 hikes cut inflation from over 9% to below 3% while the S&P 500 entered a bear market in 2022. The author sees Powell's cycle as most similar, though inflation is lower now and stock valuations are higher. The article lists possible responses: prepare for several scenarios, be cautious with rate-sensitive stocks with stretched valuations, and focus on high-quality companies, especially dividend payers.
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Kevin WarshFedinflationinterest ratesS&P 500
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Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 101.96 |
| Change that session | +0.08% |
XAU/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: low
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 3,875.51 |
| Change that session | -3.63% |
QQQ
• NeutralInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 690.49 |
| Change that session | -3.47% |
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 755.71 |
| Change that session | -1.77% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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