Fundstrat's Tom Lee says institutional investors will wait until after the November 3 midterm elections before committing new money, and stocks could fall a lot before then. The Invesco QQQ Trust fell 6.66% in October, its worst month since March 2025, and dropped 3.47% on October 30 when Intel plunged 28.58% after weaker fourth-quarter guidance despite third-quarter results that beat estimates. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on October 30, and CME FedWatch put the odds of a December rate hike at 72% as of October 31. The equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) slipped 0.79% while SPY fell 1.77%, showing the largest stocks took the hardest hit. The article stresses that concentration in a few top holdings means one earnings report can move an entire tech-heavy fund.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
QQQSPYNasdaqmidterm electionsTom Lee
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 690.49 |
| Change that session | -3.47% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 755.71 |
| Change that session | -1.77% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Stock market after midterm elections: What S&P 500 history shows
Stocks have historically tended to perform well after U.S. midterm and presidential elections. A CNBC analysis of S&P 500 returns from 1980 through 2024 found average gains of 0.2% after one day and one week, 1.1% after one month, and 13.7% a year after midterms, with returns positive in 91% of cases. Short-term returns were less reliable after presidential elections, which produced slightly negative averages after one day and one week. Divided government produced an average 15% gain over one year, compared with 11.5% under single-party control. Société Générale argues that Federal Reserve policy and the corporate earnings cycle matter more than elections, while the article flags AI, bond yields, a mini debt crisis in France and the war with Iran as key risks.
- US Equity Futures Rise as Traders Focus on Midterm Elections, Earnings Amid Oil Prices Declining
- Markets Rebound. Elections and Earnings Threaten to Reignite Fears.
The article opens by highlighting a major week for markets and the broader economy as the midterm elections approach. Traders are also bracing for a heavy slate of corporate earnings reports.
- Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures recover from bruising sell-off ahead of busy week
U.S. stock futures rose in premarket trading on Monday as investors regained risk appetite ahead of a packed week of earnings, midterm elections and a key jobs report. Dow Jones futures gained 0.4%, S&P 500 futures added 0.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.8% after the index briefly entered a correction. Markets were set to rebound from an AI-fueled sell-off that saw the Nasdaq Composite lose 5.2% during October, with chipmakers and tech names rallying, though Apple shares dipped ahead of its results. Bitcoin edged up near $78,000 after the $6.3 billion Binance hack, while Brent crude traded near $109 a barrel amid reports the U.S. and Iran are seeking a diplomatic resolution. The week's labor data will culminate in the October jobs report on Friday.
- You can expect the stock market to rally no matter who wins on Election Day
- A bigger-than-expected win for Democrats in the midterms could deliver 'short-lived weakness' for stocks, strategists say
The article says a divided federal government is expected after the midterms, but the size of congressional majorities could matter greatly to markets. According to the strategists cited, a bigger-than-expected Democratic win could bring only short-lived weakness for stocks.
Related markets
Latest news
- Bitmine Buys More Ethereum as Tom Lee Calls the Binance Hack Bullish
Bitmine Immersion Technologies bought 8,573 more ETH in its latest weekly purchase, lifting total holdings to 6,060,506 ETH, worth about $13.7 billion, or 4.9% of Ethereum's 122.2 million token supply. The company said it is 99% of the way to its goal of owning 5% of the network. Chairman Tom Lee said the record $6.4 billion Binance hack, which the FBI attributed to North Korea, showed crypto's resilience, as ETH fell only 4%, compared with an 8% drop on the day of the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025. Lee cited six reasons, including Binance's ability to cover all customer losses and the FBI naming North Korea within two days. As of Nov. 1, total holdings, including cash, other tokens and investments, reached $14.5 billion, and about 86% of its ETH is staked through its MAVAN platform, with projected annual staking revenue of about $358 million.
- Behind Anthropic's 1,127% revenue surge — and the computing bill that erased its profit
Anthropic has just filed updated financial paperwork ahead of an IPO that could take place by the end of this month. Its revenue surged 1,127%, but computing costs erased its profit.
- Billions of USD unexpectedly leave US stocks, expert warns of one thing for Vietnamese stocks
Global equity funds drew net inflows for a sixth straight week, totaling over $10 billion, though the pace slowed sharply from $25 billion the previous week. Flows diverged, with US equity funds seeing $6.65 billion in outflows, while Asian equity funds attracted nearly $10 billion and emerging-market funds added $2.2 billion. ABS analyst Nguyễn Thế Minh said this shift is a favorable signal for Vietnam's stock market, though its ability to capture the inflows depends on foreign trading activity, market attractiveness and corporate earnings outlook. On seasonality, the VN-Index has averaged a 2% gain in November over 2000–2025, with a 54% chance of rising, but the expert said this should serve only as a reference. The article stresses that a sustainable recovery requires improved cash flow and corporate earnings, amid high valuations and signs of a slowing US economy.
- Securities firms' proprietary trading net sells nearly VND 300 billion early in the month, bucking heavy buying in one bank stock
Proprietary trading desks of securities firms net sold VND 263 billion on HoSE in the November 2 session, led by MWG with a net sale of VND 180 billion, followed by BID, SSI, HPG and STB. HDB was the strongest net buy at VND 161 billion. The market fell broadly, with 27 of 30 VN30 stocks declining, and the VN-Index closed at 1,710.72 points, down 30.9 points (-1.77%). Foreign investors net sold VND 453 billion across the market. Liquidity improved from the previous session, but cash flow was still insufficient to absorb the heavy supply.
- We're trimming a rallying industrial stock, looking for its next catalyst post-spinoff
Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is selling 58 DuPont (DD) shares at roughly $143 each. After Monday's trade, the trust holds 450 DD shares, cutting its portfolio weight to 1.65% from 1.85%. The small trim offsets an earlier Boeing (BA) purchase that day. DuPont shares are up about 10% since late September, helped by rotation out of data center buildout names, but remain about $12 below their 2026 peak and are up about 18% year to date. The author says the simplification story has largely played out a year after the Qnity Electronics separation, with shares up about 36% since the breakup. The sale will realize a gain of roughly 48% on shares bought in August 2023, and the author will watch DuPont's earnings before Tuesday's open.
- Monteoro Minerals Ltd. (MTAU) Opens the Market
Monteoro Minerals Ltd. (TSXV: MTAU) has listed on the TSX Venture Exchange, and its leadership joined Toronto Stock Exchange executive Graham MacKenzie to open the market in celebration. The Colombia-focused explorer is advancing gold and copper projects, including Marquesa, Nudillales and La Ruana, and plans drilling at multiple targets in the coming months. Its management and board have more than 100 years of combined experience in Colombia and have been involved in discoveries hosting more than 50 million ounces of gold-equivalent resources. The company also has a pipeline of additional projects under development.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.