The Federal Reserve is gearing up to raise rates again, and Wall Street's four biggest banks are not equally positioned to benefit; history shows at least one of them lost ground in past tightening cycles. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time in 3 years, leaving the upper bound of the federal funds target range at 4.00%, and Kalshi traders put a 72% market-implied probability on another 25-basis-point hike at the December 9 meeting. Rising rates typically widen banks' net interest margins, but only JPMorgan rose in all three past hiking cycles; it trades at 13x forward earnings, the highest multiple in the group, with loan losses as its main risk. Bank of America estimates a 100-basis-point rise would add approximately $1.40 billion to net interest income over 12 months, but its main risk is unrealized bond losses, and the stock slid 24.8% in the last cycle. Citigroup has the cheapest multiple at 9x forward earnings but the weakest track record.
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Fedinterest ratesbanksJPMbonds
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Related tickers and likely impact
JPM
▲ Likely positiveJPMorgan Chase
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Financials |
| Industry | Diversified Banks |
| Market cap | $913.3B |
| Close on 11/02/2026 | 340.58 |
| Change that session | +1.05% |
DXY
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 11/02/2026 | 101.80 |
| Change that session | -0.16% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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