A Reuters poll of 100 economists shows expectations for another Fed rate hike in December have surged, with all 100 respondents now forecasting an increase, versus fewer than half in last month's survey. For the October 27–28 meeting, 94 of 100 expect rates to stay at 3.75%–4.00%. Nearly 60% expect the policy rate to peak at 4.00%–4.25%, and 38 of 92 respondents forecast at least two more hikes. Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for nearly six years, driven by higher energy costs from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and new tariffs, with poll medians showing PCE inflation more than 100 basis points above target until at least 2028. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% annualized rate in the second quarter, and growth is expected to slow to 2.2% in October–December.
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Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: high
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 101.62 |
| Change that session | -0.07% |
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 704.59 |
| Change that session | -2.84% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 764.02 |
| Change that session | -1.17% |
XAU/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 4,024.59 |
| Change that session | -2.82% |
BTC/USDT
▼ Likely negativeBitcoin
Relevance: medium
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 81,416.09 |
| Change that session | -3.18% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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