According to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting tool, as of October 20, CPI, which rose at an annualized 3.7% in September, is projected to accelerate to 3.77% in October, mainly due to rising fuel costs from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Core PCE, the measure the Fed prefers, has held at 3% for three consecutive months but is projected to rise to 3.05% in September and 3.13% in October, suggesting that costs from the Iran war, such as rerouted shipping and supplier changes, are spreading through the economy. Headline inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for 67 months. After Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC unanimously voted in September to raise rates to 3.75%-4.00%, CME's FedWatch Tool puts a 72% probability on rates rising by at least 75 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% by September 15, 2027. The article argues that aggressive rate hikes could slow AI infrastructure spending and pressure a historically expensive stock market.
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Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: high
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 101.62 |
| Change that session | -0.07% |
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 704.59 |
| Change that session | -2.84% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 764.02 |
| Change that session | -1.17% |
EUR/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 1.12168 |
| Change that session | -0.14% |
XAU/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 4,024.59 |
| Change that session | -2.82% |
BTC/USDT
▼ Likely negativeBitcoin
Relevance: low
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 81,416.09 |
| Change that session | -3.18% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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