U.S. inflation keeps accelerating: CPI rose at a 3.7% annualized rate in September, with energy up 20.4%, while the Producer Price Index jumped 6.3%, including a 35.4% surge in energy. The Fed raised rates for the first time in three years at its September meeting, and Chair Kevin Warsh warned that more hikes could come if inflation stays high. CME's FedWatch tool shows a 91% probability of another 25-basis-point hike in December, as the U.S.–Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed West Texas Intermediate crude above $100, up 77% from the start of 2026. The article notes that higher rates weigh on consumer spending and corporate earnings, and the 2022–2023 hiking cycle drove the S&P 500 down more than 20%. The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio of 41 is second only to the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000, which the article says leaves the index especially vulnerable to a correction.
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inflationFedKevin WarshWall Street
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Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: high
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 101.70 |
| Change that session | 0.00% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: high
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 773.09 |
| Change that session | +0.53% |
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 725.20 |
| Change that session | +1.05% |
BTC/USDT
▼ Likely negativeBitcoin
Relevance: medium
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 84,093.42 |
| Change that session | +1.28% |
XAU/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 4,141.17 |
| Change that session | +0.39% |
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