As of writing, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have slipped about 2%, 3% and 5%, respectively, from their highs earlier this year, while the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 32, in the fear zone. The article focuses on the yield curve, particularly the 10-year-to-two-year spread, a widely watched recession indicator that has inverted before nearly every recession since the 1970s. The curve has not been inverted since 2024, but it is sloping downward, and with more Fed rate hikes on the table, its direction is uncertain. The article notes that no indicator is fully accurate and that the timing of a downturn cannot be predicted, so choosing companies with durable competitive advantages and healthy finances is presented as a way to prepare. It also points out that the S&P 500 has risen more than 750% since January 2000 despite several historic bear markets.
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Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/28/2026 | 725.59 |
| Change that session | +0.60% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/28/2026 | 772.35 |
| Change that session | +0.35% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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