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Related tickers and likely impact
AUD/USD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 0.69799 |
| Change that session | +0.49% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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The Australian dollar rose 0.41% on Oct. 21 after RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said inflation risks had worsened, citing oil costs, technology prices reaching consumers and limited domestic capacity. Hauser said the RBA's inflation assessment had weakened since August, and that the bank was still preparing forecasts; he did not know what the board would decide. Commerzbank raised its implied odds of a November rate hike to 55% from 24%, though it still expects the RBA to hold for now, while the currency reached US$0.7031 and the U.S. dollar index fell 0.14% to 101.65. Latest data showed annual CPI at 4.0% through August and trimmed mean at 3.6%, versus RBA August projections of 3.6% and 3.3% for December. The cash rate is 4.60% after a 25-basis-point hike on Sept. 29, and September CPI is due Oct. 27.
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Markets see a November RBA rate hike as close to a coin toss, even though official figures released a week ago showed unemployment hitting a five-year high of 4.7%. The RBA has a full-employment mandate, and unemployment is running well above its forecasts, which may signal a faster-than-expected weakening in the jobs market. In theory, that should help bring inflation back to target without the need for higher interest rates.
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Financial markets are beginning to price in the possibility that Australian interest rates will rise above 5% early next year, after the central bank issued an inflation warning this week. The Australian dollar hit a three-week high of US70.28 cents on Thursday, up 1% in just four days, while three-year bond yields rose 10 basis points to 4.94% as traders rapidly repriced expectations ahead of the RBA's next policy meeting.
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The US Dollar Index edged down 0.2% to 101.58, its lowest since October 1, as lower Treasury yields and gains in other major currencies weighed on the greenback, while Asian currencies were mixed. Investors are watching the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank decisions due between October 28 and 30, with the Fed widely expected to hold rates at 3.75%-4.00%. The yen's USD/JPY fell 0.3% amid expectations of a BOJ hold and the threat of currency intervention, while the yuan stayed near four-year lows. The Indian rupee has strengthened for nine consecutive sessions through Wednesday, helped by RBI measures aimed at curbing speculative dollar demand, though elevated oil prices remain a risk. The Australian dollar's AUD/USD edged down 0.1% after four sessions of gains.
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National Australia Bank (NAB) said it will cut up to 2,500 jobs, about 6% of its workforce, over the next year to simplify operations and reduce costs, with up to 1,500 roles going by the end of 2026. The biggest reductions will hit corporate roles rather than customer-facing bankers, and NAB also plans to materially reduce its use of consultants and contractors. The overhaul will bring a pre-tax restructuring charge of about AU$300 million in 2027, compared with about AU$80 million in each of 2025 and 2026. NAB shares fell nearly 2.5% on the day, the steepest decline among the Big Four retail banks, and the Finance Sector Union criticised the move. The cuts follow weaker housing activity, rising competition and higher operating costs, and come after a similar restructuring at rival ANZ.
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