U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Tuesday as investors awaited more economic data and weighed inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision next week. The 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 5.114%, the 30-year yield dropped 2 basis points to 5.45%, and the 2-year yield was roughly flat at 4.757%. Investors were set to watch September housing starts and pending home sales, weekly ADP employment data, initial jobless claims on Thursday, the S&P Global Composite PMI Flash on Friday, and the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. CME FedWatch shows traders pricing in an 82% chance the Fed will hold rates steady.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Keywords
bondsFedinterest ratesemployment
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 101.98 |
| Change that session | +0.20% |
XAU/USD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: medium
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 4,140.75 |
| Change that session | -0.60% |
EUR/USD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 1.12125 |
| Change that session | -0.24% |
QQQ
▲ Likely positiveInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 718.36 |
| Change that session | +1.21% |
SPY
▲ Likely positiveSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 766.48 |
| Change that session | +0.42% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Rising Costs Continue to Challenge U . S . Consumers : How Much Longer Can They Cope ?
Consumer prices in the U.S. rose again in September 2026: CPI climbed to 3.7% year-over-year from 3.4% in August, mainly driven by a 9.1% jump in gasoline prices in a single month. Core inflation also edged up from 2.4% to 2.6%. Wholesale diesel prices soared 21% in one month, and the average retail diesel price hit $6.32 per gallon by mid-October, nearly double the $3.66 a year earlier, according to AAA; experts warn that transport costs will feed into the prices of other goods. Retail sales still rose 0.8% in September, but excluding gasoline they rose only 0.2%. The labor market is showing signs of weakening: the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September versus 90,000 expected, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and inflation-adjusted weekly paychecks fell year-over-year for the first time since May. The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September, its first hike since 2023, and 16 of 18 officials are considering at least one more hike, while the 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.46% by mid-October.
- In 2008 , The Walmart Recession Signal Neared A Record As The Market Collapsed . One Economist Says It Is Starting To Rise Again
Economist Jim Paulsen says his "Walmart Recession Signal", the ratio of Walmart stock to stocks tied to wealthier consumers, has risen again since August after nearing a record high in 2008. Walmart's second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue reached $187.94B, up 5.9%, with share gains led by upper-income households. Paulsen says the gains suggest the Fed may need to pause before raising rates again, following its September 17, 2026 increase to 3.75%–4.00%, though he calls the signal imperfect. Unemployment stands at 4.2%, up from 4.1% in August, and the signal has not always coincided with sharp jumps in joblessness.
- Is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh About To Pop CoreWeave Bubble ?
CoreWeave (CRWV) shares fell 24% over the past week to their lowest level since shortly after its IPO, after venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya posted a chart showing its debt yields had risen as high as 15%. The neocloud operator borrows to buy GPUs and rents out their computing power, a model that drove second-quarter revenue up 112% to $2.58 billion. However, it posted a $626 million net loss, largely due to $640 million in interest expense, and negative free cash flow of $10.5 billion in the first half of the year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who took over in May, aims to bring inflation back to the 2% target, including through rate hikes that have pushed Treasury yields higher. Since most of CoreWeave's debt is floating-rate and it has $10.6 billion due by the end of next year, rising rates pose a refinancing test, and its November 11 earnings report is seen as pivotal.
- Munis steady but yields could rise under heavy calendar
Municipal bonds were little changed on Monday as U.S. Treasuries cheapened and equities ended mixed, with muni yields weakening by up to two basis points, mainly at the long end, while UST yields rose by six to seven basis points. Ajay Thomas of FHN Financial said the Treasury weakness was carryover from last week, when concerns about AI research and development and corporate earnings hit the market. He expects munis to underperform Treasuries this week due to a large new-issue calendar. He also noted the Federal Reserve is in a blackout period ahead of its October meeting, so investors should not expect any new economic data.
- 10 - Year Treasury Yield Falls 15 Basis Points as Nasdaq - 100 Slides 5 . 5 %
U.S. Treasury yields fell as tech stocks slid in the week ended Oct. 16: the 10-year par yield dropped from 5.24% to 5.09%, a 15-basis-point decline, while the Nasdaq-100 fell about 5.5%. Bloomberg linked the bond rally to commodity trading advisers cutting bearish Treasury futures positions and to investors seeking a haven, and said the joint drop in yields and the Nasdaq-100 was the first such week since the April 2025 tariff turmoil. Long-term yields had climbed for seven months on persistent inflation, a resilient economy and heavy borrowing, hitting their highest levels in more than two decades. Investment-grade companies had sold about $1.7 trillion of bonds in 2026 so far, roughly 29% more than a year earlier, with AI infrastructure borrowing intensifying competition for Treasury buyers. Rate traders still expect one Fed increase by the end of 2026 and another in 2027 ahead of the Oct. 27-28 policy meeting.
- Mortgage Rates Today , Monday , October 19 : Starting the Week Lower
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.20% APR, 15 basis points below Friday and 12 basis points below a week earlier. The decline began last week as doubts about AI profits weighed on tech stocks and pushed investors toward Treasuries, lowering the 10-year Treasury yield to which mortgage rates are generally tied. The article notes that rates also move with inflation reports, jobs data and Fed meetings, and that inflation is still running hot. It adds that borrowers with a current rate around 7.70% or higher might consider refinancing if new rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points lower.
Related markets
Latest news
- Internet down: Google Cloud outage leaves websites including Lloyds Bank, Rightmove and DPD not working
A major internet outage appears to have taken down many websites and apps, including Lloyds Bank, HSBC, Screwfix, DPD and internet bank Revolut, according to Down Detector. At least some of the problems seem linked to Google Cloud, where Google confirmed issues with multiple services at its west Europe facilities and said there was no workaround. The article notes it is unclear whether all the disruptions are related. It also points out that cloud infrastructure providers such as Google Cloud, Cloudflare and Amazon Web Services are largely invisible yet support much of the internet, so an outage at one can knock out many seemingly unrelated services.
- BlackRock Files for 'Buffer' Bitcoin ETF as IBIT Draws $665M in a Day
BlackRock has filed with the SEC for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF (ticker PBIT), a 'buffer' fund that would limit initial losses to about 10% in exchange for capping gains. Instead of holding Bitcoin directly, it would buy call options on IBIT or similar exposure, sell higher-priced calls to offset costs, use three overlapping monthly tranches, and hold fixed-income investments. The management fee has not been set. On the same day, IBIT was the only one of 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs to post net inflows, at $665.2 million, while the group's total net inflows were $526.6 million. The funds had shed about $910 million over the previous two weeks as hotter-than-expected inflation data revived bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike.
- The Best Trillion-Dollar Stock to Buy Right Now, According to Wall Street
According to the article, 13 U.S.-listed stocks have a market capitalization of at least $1 trillion, and analysts are most bullish on Micron, with a median target price of $1,575 per share, implying 70% upside from the current $925. Micron's results have surged amid a memory chip shortage driven by AI infrastructure demand: revenue in the September quarter rose 379% to $54 billion, and non-GAAP earnings reached $33.42 per diluted share, up from $3.03 a year earlier. The CEO expects tighter supply-demand conditions in fiscal 2027 and 2028. However, new capacity from Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix and others could lead to oversupply by 2029, and memory prices have historically fallen sharply in such periods. Some investors believe AI demand and longer contracts could weaken the boom-and-bust pattern, while others remain cautious.
- PNJ Shares 'Surge' Ahead of Extraordinary Shareholders' Meeting
PNJ shares hit the daily ceiling of 19,750 dong ahead of an extraordinary shareholders' meeting, with more than 4 million shares in unfilled buy orders at the ceiling price and matched volume above 16 million shares, worth over 315 billion dong. Foreign investors returned as net buyers of over 3.5 million shares after heavy selling. At the meeting, the company will present a restructuring plan following the diamond incident, including cutting this year's revenue target by about 20% to around 39,000 billion dong and setting aside over 7,071 billion dong in provisions, which would swing projected after-tax profit from 3,400 billion dong to a loss of 6,271 billion dong. It also proposes lowering last year's dividend payout from 20% to 10% and issuing up to 550 million shares privately. The stock has lost about 70% of its value since early July.
- Nvidia Stock Hasn’t Been This Cheap in 7 Years. Only 1 Explanation Makes Sense.
Nvidia's trailing P/E ratio is about 27, its lowest since June 2019 and less than half its 10-year average of 61.3, even though the share price has nearly tripled since Aswath Damodaran called the stock a bridge too far in early 2024. The article argues the only mathematical explanation is that earnings are growing faster than the share price, with second quarter fiscal 2027 revenue up 106% to $92.6 billion and earnings up 126%. Damodaran's 2024 valuation model assumed revenue growth of around 32% a year over five years, a pace Nvidia is now far exceeding. Risks noted include doubts about returns on huge AI infrastructure spending, local opposition to data centers, and rising competition from AMD and customers such as Amazon, Google and Microsoft. The author says Damodaran was badly wrong about Nvidia and suggests the trend could continue.
- Coteccons shifts growth focus as construction sector gains major rivals
Coteccons (CTD) views the entry of VinCons (Vingroup) and Tân Minh Nhân (Sun Group) as a force raising industry standards, and its chairman Bolat Duisenov prefers not to compare the company with other contractors. Instead, management focuses on three questions: how to become investors' first choice, how to attract and retain talent, and how to diversify revenue. In fiscal 2026, net revenue rose 38% to VND 34,340 billion and after-tax profit rose 73% to VND 788 billion, while backlog reached a record VND 70,000 billion. The company targets revenue of VND 42,000 billion and profit of VND 1,050 billion for fiscal 2027, although new contracts signed in Q1 of fiscal 2027 totaled VND 14,519 billion, down year on year, as it tightens client and project selection. Bolat said the company can sustain 20-30% growth in the coming years and is shifting its focus from volume to efficiency.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.