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US GDP Unexpectedly Beats Forecasts, Inflation Gauge Stays Elevated, Probability of Fed Rate Hike Rises to 84.6%

US GDP grew 3.4% in Q3 2026, above the 3.1% forecast and up from 2.2% in Q2. According to Fwdbonds chief economist Chris Rupkey, the growth was driven by AI infrastructure investment and sustained consumer and government spending. PCE rose 0.5% in September, lifting annual inflation to 3.6%, while core PCE rose 3.1% year over year, keeping pressure on the Fed. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4% one day before these data were released, and initial jobless claims fell to 194,000. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets put the probability of a Fed rate hike at the December meeting at about 84.6%.

Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.

Original headline: GDP Mỹ bất ngờ tăng vượt dự báo, thước đo lạm phát tiếp tục neo cao, xác suất Fed tăng lãi suất tăng 84,6%

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Fedinflationinterest ratesGDP growth

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